Tom Luongo argues that the Iran conflict is less about Israel dictating U.S. policy and more about a broader struggle against old British/French/European financial power, with Trump trying to reroute oil, trade, and capital flows away from historic choke points. He also frames Trump’s China outreach as part of a larger reordering toward a U.S.-centered new world economy.
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This interview centers on Tom Luongo’s geopolitical thesis that the Iran war is being misread through a narrow Israel-vs.-U.S. lens. He acknowledges overlapping U.S.-Israel incentives on preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, but argues the deeper driver is a wider contest involving what he calls the old colonial/financial order—Britain, France, City of London, and broader Davos-aligned European elite networks. In his framing, Iran, the Gulf states, and Middle Eastern shipping routes are all pieces in a larger system designed to control oil volatility, banking flows, and geopolitical leverage. Luongo says Trump is actively trying to “decomplicate” the Middle East by breaking the strategic power of oil chokepoints such as Hormuz, Malacca, Gibraltar, and other maritime bottlenecks. He claims the U.S. …
Tactically, the setup is for renewed Middle East volatility, possible further U.S. action on Iran, and a jump in oil/liquidity stress. Near-term risk is that bonds, FX, and energy all reprice together if the next leg of the conflict starts while offshore funding is already tight.
Over the next few months, the base case is a gradual re-routing of energy and trade flows away from classic choke points, with China and the Gulf states negotiating around U.S. leverage. The key validation signal is whether U.S. small caps and select emerging markets can absorb the regime shift while Europe shows greater fragility.
Structurally, the thesis is that the old Europe-centered offshore system is losing its ability to control oil, capital, and geopolitical volatility. If that holds, the durable implication is a more U.S.-anchored, Americas-plus-Pacific trading order and less power for legacy financial intermediaries.
The popular narrative that Israel is directly controlling the United States is incorrect or at least incomplete.
He says AIPAC has influence but argues the U.S. does not take orders from Israel and that the narrative overstates the relationship.
The deeper conflict behind the Iran war involves British/French/European colonial power and Davos-aligned elites.
He repeatedly frames the conflict as a battle with old colonial money and the shadow empire rather than a simple Israel-U.S. story.
Trump is trying to reroute global trade and oil flows away from historic choke points and toward the Americas and Pacific-facing routes.
He argues Trump is building an alternative energy/trade architecture using Alaska, Saudi/UAE routes, Morocco, and Indonesia.
Could you first address why that narrative is incorrect and then walk us through what is really driving this conflict?
Luongo says the narrative is incomplete because the real struggle involves old European colonial and financial powers, plus overlapping U.S.-Israel incentives around preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon.
What do you think is the endgame here for the Trump administration, and how long will this conflict continue?
He says Trump wants to end oil volatility, reduce Middle East complexity, and move the system toward a new architecture; he expects more strikes soon and says the conflict will keep disrupting markets through the summer and beyond.
What are the headlines missing about Trump's meeting with Xi, and is China genuinely on board with cooperation?
Luongo says the meeting was real leverage-based negotiation, not theater; he thinks China will seek deals where it can, but both sides will continue bargaining hard over oil, rare earths, and industrial capacity.
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