Brian Belski argues the AI/tech bubble call is overdone, sees continued U.S. equity strength, and says silver’s parabolic move warrants caution rather than extrapolation. He remains constructive on the S&P 500, expects lower rates and stronger earnings to support stocks, and favors more cyclical sectors plus financials and utilities.
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This transcript is a market outlook interview with Brian Belski of Humilis Investment Strategies. The conversation starts with a comparison between silver’s sharp rise and broader equity moves: Belski says parabolic advances deserve caution, especially in commodities like silver and gold, because investors often assume recent returns will continue even when fundamentals do not support that expectation. He distinguishes that from U.S. equities, which he frames as being in a long secular bull market with fundamentally stronger underpinnings in earnings, valuation, cash flow, and dividends. Belski says bears have repeatedly been wrong on the big call themes of the past few years: an imminent AI bubble collapse, a repeat of 1999-2000, tariff/geopolitical panic, and the idea that rising rates or Fed policy would break the bull market. …
Tactically, he’s warning against chasing silver and other parabolic trades while staying constructive on U.S. equities. Near-term risk is a surprise macro or geopolitical shock, but he thinks any selloff should be buyable rather than the start of a lasting break.
Over the next few months, the base case is a still-healthy equity market led by earnings rather than just multiple expansion. Validation comes from lower inflation, continued Fed easing, and decent profit growth; if those fade, the upside case to 7,300-7,500 gets less convincing.
Structurally, he believes the U.S. remains the best long-duration equity regime because of superior corporate quality and resilience in crises. His larger thesis is that the secular bull market from 2009/2010 is still alive and may eventually run through one last cyclical bull before it ends.
The bears were wrong to predict an AI bubble and a straight-down collapse in tech stocks.
He says bearish comparisons to 1999-2000 did not play out and that tech stocks have not collapsed as predicted.
Silver’s parabolic rise means investors should proceed with caution because similar returns are unlikely over the next 12 months.
He explicitly warns that a triple move in silver should not be extrapolated forward.
The U.S. stock market remains in a long secular bull market that began in 2009/2010.
He repeats his long-standing secular bull call and says several cyclical bears and bulls have occurred inside it.
If a stock went straight up from $30 to $90 — a 3x in 6 months — what questions would you be asking yourself about what to do with it?
Belki says they never begrudge asset prices going higher but advises caution. He notes the chart likely shows silver bottoming in April 2025 coinciding with tariff fears driving investors to hard commodities, then momentum taking over. He warns investors not to expect similar triple-digit returns over the next 12 months.
Since the S&P 500 has been a straight line up since 2009, why are you not more cautious on stocks than you would be on a parabolic commodity like silver?
Belki argues the fundamental construct of US equities — valuation, earnings, cash flow, book value, dividends — is sound, unlike commodities which are just price momentum. The secular bull market has had cyclical pauses to refresh. He says bears who missed the first half are late to the party. He believes 2026 will be more like a typical third year of a bull market, with last year being an anomaly due to tariff shocks.
What do you make of geopolitical tensions like annexation talk — isn't that more than just noise?
Belki says geopolitical risks are overplayed. He accuses the interviewer of showing emotion about annexation and compares it to Canadian investors who left in April 2025 and missed the rebound. He calls annexation talk 'blowhard type talk' and advises ignoring noise, sticking with process, and buying good companies in both Canada and the US.
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