Keith McCullough argues markets are still underbullish, with a Quad 1 / Goldilocks backdrop that favors momentum, metals, small caps, and select cyclicals despite political and geopolitical noise.
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This interview centers on McCullough’s current macro framework and portfolio positioning. His core view is that investors should ignore narrative-driven fear and own assets that are already confirming strength. He says the world remains in a Quad 1 ‘Goldilocks’ regime in the U.S. — slowing inflation and reaccelerating real growth — while parts of the rest of the world move into Quad 2, supporting a broad demand backdrop. A major theme is metals. McCullough says he is long nine metals and related assets across precious and base metals, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and lithium. He repeatedly frames precious metals and several industrial/resource names as the right response to geopolitical tension, war risk, and resource nationalization concerns. …
Near term, the tape still favors momentum and trend confirmation over mean reversion; he would stay long metals, small caps, and selected cyclicals while fading broken defensive names and credit-card-linked financials.
Over the next few months, his base case is continued disinflation plus enough growth to keep the Fed dovish, which should support broadening risk appetite beyond mega caps into Russell 2000, metals, and resource-linked trades.
Structurally, he sees a regime where institutional trust is lower, hard assets matter more, and active rotation beats static allocation. In that world, resource scarcity, defense, and adaptable portfolio construction remain durable advantages.
Markets are not bullish enough and investors should own momentum that is already working.
He explicitly argues to buy the thing making higher highs rather than fading it.
The U.S. is in a Quad 1 Goldilocks regime with inflation slowing and real growth accelerating.
This is his central macro framework for supporting risk assets.
Geopolitical fear and media narratives are poor guides for portfolio decisions compared with price and trend signals.
He repeatedly says to ignore media and focus on numbers, not narratives.
How do you risk-manage this current geopolitical environment where annexation talk and conflict are front and center?
Keith says the number one thing is to ignore the media — focus on numbers, not narratives. Markets have gone much higher than expected. He's in a 'quad one goldilocks' environment where inflation is slowing and growth is accelerating, which is bullish for everything from metals to small caps. Buying opportunities come on days when people have panic attacks over political or geopolitical concerns.
Are you prepared as an investor to be long war, and do you see geopolitical hotspots translating into kinetic wars at a larger scale?
Keith says they are long nine different metals from precious to base — gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, lithium, etc. Some would argue wars are about resources. Silver at $85 is not saying no to geopolitical risk. However, he cautions that during actual wars global industrial production went into recession, so he would never use war as a one-factor model.
Is Trump's talk about Canada becoming the 51st state a real thing?
Keith thinks the idea of Canada being the 51st state is just an idea that triggers certain people who don't know where the map is. He references Trump saying Canada would be better off as a 51st state because the US loses $200B a year with Canada. Keith observes that Trump looks at pictures and maps, and Canada from a natural resource perspective looks like Park Avenue and Broadway in Monopoly, but it's not a serious likelihood.
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