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[LIVE] NASDAQ London Session w/ Leo – OIL, GOLD, SPY, QQQ, ES | Real-Time Day Trading Strategy

Channel: Pasha IRL Published: 2026-05-14 08:09
Pasha IRL

Live London-session day-trading stream focused on NASDAQ/NQ, oil, gold, and prop-firm talk. The speaker leaned bullish on NASDAQ overall but repeatedly said the intraday action was sideways and untradeable, leading to several forced losses on trend-following entries.

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Detailed summary

This was a live, informal London-session trading stream hosted by Leo on Pasha IRL. The discussion centered on real-time price action in NQ/NASDAQ, oil, gold, SPY/QQQ/ES, plus some side conversation about UK politics and a prop-firm comparison spreadsheet the speaker is building with Pasha. Leo said his higher-timeframe bias on NASDAQ remained bullish, but he repeatedly emphasized that the immediate market structure was choppy, sideways, and poor for EMA/trend-following setups. A large portion of the stream was spent analyzing whether NQ would retrace, break higher, or continue ranging. Leo described his preferred method as trading rejection off the 21 EMA on the 1m/2m/5m when the trend is confirmed, but he explicitly warned that this method fails in sideways markets. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Leo’s broader bias stayed bullish on NASDAQ/NQ, but he treated the session as intraday noise unless structure improved.
  2. The immediate tape was judged to be sideways and poor for trend-following EMA entries.
  3. Oil weakness was watched as a possible factor for index direction, but the usual oil/index correlation was described as less reliable than before.
  4. The speaker’s main trading edge claim was rejection off the 21 EMA on lower timeframes, but he repeatedly said that edge fails in chop.
  5. Several trades were forced during the session and Leo framed the losses as a consequence of bad market conditions plus stubborn execution.
  6. A prop-firm comparison spreadsheet was a major side topic, with Apex, Take Profit Trader, and MyFundedFutures highlighted.
  7. The stream mixed live market reads with chat Q&A, light political discussion, and self-promotion for the spreadsheet/Buy Me a Coffee link.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, NQ looks like a messy range where trend-following entries are vulnerable to stopouts until price resolves out of consolidation. The immediate risk is chasing EMA signals in chop; the practical play is waiting for a clean sweep/reclaim or a true breakout.

  • Immediate setup was still a range-bound NQ tape; Leo said he would rather wait for a clearer rejection or breakout than force another EMA trade.
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  • Oil was sliding at points, but Leo no longer trusted a clean negative correlation with NASDAQ.
  • US data releases hit during the stream, including retail sales and jobless claims, but he did not see a clean actionable read from them in real time.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks, the bullish NASDAQ view only matters if the market starts producing cleaner directional legs and pullbacks that hold. If the tape stays rotational, the strategy should shift away from 21 EMA continuation and toward more selective regime-based trading.

  • Over the next several weeks, Leo’s base case remained constructive on NASDAQ overall, but only if price starts producing cleaner trend days and valid pullbacks.
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  • He would likely continue favoring lower-timeframe continuation entries off the 21 EMA when broader structure confirms direction.
  • If the market stays rotational and mean-reverting, he implied that his usual strategy loses reliability and should be de-emphasized.
Long term

Structurally, the stream argues that trading success depends more on identifying regime than on any single indicator. The durable lesson is that trend systems can be strong in impulse phases but get structurally broken by sideways markets, regardless of the trader’s broader bias.

  • The stream’s structural thesis was that disciplined trend-following can work well, but only when market regime supports it.
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  • Leo framed market structure recognition as more important than any single indicator; the 21 EMA is a tool, not a standalone edge.
  • The broader implication is that traders need regime awareness: trend strategies in chop are structurally vulnerable, even if the long-term bias is right.
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Key claims (8)

19:50
BULLISH US equities NQ / NASDAQ

Leo’s higher-timeframe bias on NASDAQ/NQ is bullish.

He explicitly said 'overall I am bullish' and repeated that overall he was bullish on NASDAQ.

1:36:45
BEARISH NQ

The immediate intraday setup is sideways and poor for trend-following entries.

He repeatedly called the tape sideways, untradeable, and said EMA signals fail in such conditions.

1:51:30
BULLISH NQ / futures

Rejection off the 21 EMA on lower timeframes is his most reliable trading method in trending markets.

He described this as his preferred strategy and said it works well when a trend is confirmed.

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Assets discussed (10)

NASDAQ
BULLISH index

Leo said overall he was bullish on NASDAQ, though not on the immediate chop.

NQ
MIXED index

Higher-timeframe bullish, but intraday action was described as sideways and untradeable; several long/short attempts failed.

Unlock the full asset map (8 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Speakers

HOST Pasha GUEST Leo

Interview (4 Q&A)

3:10
session bias

What's your bias for the session?

Leo said he needed to watch the charts first and did not have an immediate bias yet.

19:50
NASDAQ bias

Are you bullish on NASDAQ?

He said he was bullish overall, but not necessarily on the current intraday setup.

50:00
strategy

What are your most reliable trading methods?

He said his preferred approach is trading rejection off the 21 EMA in a confirmed trend on lower timeframes, but it should not be used in chop.

Unlock the full interview (1 more Q&A) Every question, answer summary, and YouTube timestamp. Unlock full Q&A

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that the 21 EMA rejection strategy has a 70–80% win rate was presented informally without evidence or backtest context.
  • He initially treated the oil/index correlation as actionable, then later said that correlation had largely broken down; the framework was inconsistent intraday.
  • Some macro commentary was speculative, especially linking UK political resignation dynamics directly to currency moves before getting clarification.
  • He described the market as untradeable while still taking multiple trades, which weakens the internal consistency of the execution narrative.

Topics

NASDAQ/NQ intraday tradingoil price actiongold and SPY/QQQ/ES mentions21 EMA trend-following strategyLondon session market structureUS macro releasesUK politics and pound reactionprop firm comparison spreadsheettrade management and stopoutsBuy Me a Coffee / community support

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