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[LIVE] NASDAQ Futures Trading May 12 – OIL, GOLD, SPY, QQQ, ES | Real-Time Day Trading Strategy

Channel: Pasha IRL Published: 2026-05-12 12:37
Pasha IRL

A live day-trading stream focused on NASDAQ futures, SPY, oil, and gold, where the host traded around CPI follow-through, Iran/Trump headlines, and a sharp intraday selloff. The session was dominated by rapid scalps, repeated mistakes on entries, and a late recovery attempt as the market sold off hard and then bounced.

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Detailed summary

This was a real-time trading stream rather than a structured interview. The main speaker repeatedly narrated his execution on NQ / S&P futures as headlines hit: CPI follow-through, Trump comments on Iran and China, market-on-open imbalances, and later the New York Fed household debt report and an EIA-style oil report. The early tone was tactical and tentative: he thought the market may be shifting from the Asia/London downtrend into a higher low / possible market-structure shift up, but quickly flipped between long and short as price action evolved. As the session developed, the speaker emphasized how NQ was more volatile and harder to trade than ES, and repeatedly argued that ES was cleaner. He entered and exited several short and long scalps, often describing them as bad entries or wrong timing. …

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Main takeaways

  1. The speaker was trading a headline-sensitive intraday selloff in NASDAQ futures, ES, SPY, gold, and oil.
  2. Iran/Trump headlines were treated as an important catalyst, especially around risk-off behavior and oil.
  3. He repeatedly said NQ was harder and noisier than ES, and that ES was the cleaner instrument.
  4. The speaker lost money by trading against the move, then recovered some losses with shorts during the breakdown.
  5. He viewed the drop as partly profit-taking after a huge run-up, not just a one-off news shock.
  6. Order blocks, VWAP, EMAs, and fib retracements were the main technical tools guiding entries and exits.
  7. He ended the session tired and stopped trading after a volatile day with mixed execution.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Immediate bias is bearish-to-mixed: the market is in a sharp selloff, but it’s extended enough that violent squeezes can still appear on any news or auction flow. The most actionable setup is to wait for pullbacks into resistance rather than chase the flush.

  • Immediate setup: a sharp downside trend with frequent countertrend squeezes, so the tape was still dangerous for chasing.
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  • Near-term catalyst risk centered on Trump/Iran headlines, the New York Fed report, and the EIA oil-related update.
  • The speaker repeatedly flagged 29,000 and then 28,900 on NQ as key downside references.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks, the base case is a choppy corrective phase after a large prior rally, with bears needing lower highs and failed bounces to confirm continuation. A reclaim of the intraday moving averages or a stabilization above the support band would weaken the bearish case.

  • Over the next several weeks, the speaker’s base case was that the market could remain vulnerable to a deeper retracement after a strong prior advance.
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  • He suggested the decline may reflect profit-taking after a large multi-thousand-point rally, with traders locking gains on uncertainty.
  • Validation for a continued bearish swing would come from lower highs, failed rebounds at moving averages, and a clean break through the referenced support zone.
Long term

Structurally, the tape is being driven by a regime where geopolitics and energy supply can override simple textbook correlations. In that environment, disciplined execution and risk control matter more than broad conviction calls on NQ versus ES.

  • Structurally, the speaker views the market as operating in a regime where geopolitical shocks, energy supply concerns, and macro headlines can dominate index behavior.
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  • He implied that in this regime the usual simple correlations break down: gold, oil, and equity futures can stop behaving in textbook fashion.
  • He also argued that large prior rallies eventually invite profit-taking and distribution, which can create sustained downside once the trend turns.
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Key claims (7)

12:20
BULLISH intraday trend NASDAQ futures

The market may be shifting from the Asia/London downtrend into a higher-low structure that could turn into an upside market-structure shift.

He explicitly said CPI may have changed the trend and that the current structure looked like a possible higher low and shift up.

20:55
NEUTRAL execution quality NQ

NQ is harder to trade than ES and overreacts more to market moves.

He repeatedly said ES was cleaner and that NQ overreacts to everything.

1:31:55
BEARISH geopolitics NASDAQ futures

Trump/Iran headlines were contributing to the intraday risk-off move.

He repeatedly linked Trump comments on Iran and nuclear issues to falling equities and oil/gold reactions.

Unlock 4 more claims See the full bullish, bearish, and counter-consensus argument map extracted from the transcript. Unlock all claims

Assets discussed (10)

NASDAQ 100 futures — NQ
BEARISH index

Speaker repeatedly shorted the market, described a strong downside trend, and discussed downside targets and breakdowns.

S&P 500 futures — ES
MIXED index

Used as the cleaner benchmark; speaker alternated between bullish and bearish intraday reads but treated the overall tape as weak.

Unlock the full asset map (8 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Speakers

HOST Pasha HOST Leo

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The speaker repeatedly fought the trend, especially by trying longs during a clear selloff, then described the results as bad timing rather than addressing why the bias kept flipping.
  • He used multiple technical frameworks at once (VWAP, EMAs, fibs, order blocks) without a single consistent hierarchy, which made some entries feel post-hoc.
  • Several claims about why the market was falling were speculative, especially the idea that the move was mainly profit-taking rather than a broader macro repricing.
  • He sometimes treated the same level as both a valid entry and a reason to exit, suggesting unstable trade planning under pressure.
  • His conviction that the account was at risk, then later “saved,” was driven more by P&L swings than by a stable process.

Topics

NASDAQ futuresES vs NQ executionIran and Trump headlinesStrait of Hormuzoil marketsgold vs risk-on/risk-offVWAP and EMA tradingFibonacci levelsprofit-taking and trend daysNew York Fed debt report

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