Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is following a recurring midterm-year seasonal pattern: a low in late February followed by a rally into early March, but not usually a durable bull-market breakout. He cautions that a near-term bounce could still fit a broader setup that later fades into April/May.
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This video is a chart-driven Bitcoin seasonality argument centered on midterm-year performance. Cowen compares the current year-to-date path with prior midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022) and says Bitcoin often forms a local low in early-to-late February, then rallies into the first week of March before weakening again later in the spring. He emphasizes that similar rallies have often been misread by traders as the start of a new bull market, especially when narratives and social-media explanations are strong, but in his view the chart pattern is more important than the news cycle. He says the current move is consistent with his prior call for a local low in late February and a possible rally into early March. …
Tactically, Bitcoin may have a short rebound window into early March, but the setup looks like a seasonal bounce rather than a breakout. Traders should watch for rejection in the low-to-mid 70Ks and treat the next few sessions as a possible topping zone.
Over the coming weeks, the more likely path in Cowen’s framework is a rally that stalls near the historical midterm-year top window and then rolls over into spring. The view would improve only if Bitcoin can hold strength beyond early March and invalidate the usual seasonal fade.
Longer term, the transcript argues that Bitcoin remains a cyclical asset where year-type seasonality and behavioral crowding matter a lot. The structural lesson is to distrust supercycle narratives and respect recurring drawdown/recovery patterns when positioning.
Bitcoin often forms a low in late February and then rallies into early March during midterm years.
He compares 2014, 2018, 2022, and the current year to show a repeated seasonal pattern.
The historical average midterm-year path tops out around day 62 of the year after a February low.
He cites an average pattern in year-to-date ROI and says the rally tends to peak around that window.
A rebound into the low-to-mid 70Ks would not necessarily change the broader bearish midterm-year interpretation.
He says even a move back to around 74K would still fit the seasonal setup and could meet resistance.
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