Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s recent February weakness fits a recurring midterm-year seasonal pattern and that a countertrend bounce into early March would not likely mark the bear market low.
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The video is a solo market commentary from Benjamin Cowen focused entirely on Bitcoin’s post-February price action and historical midterm-year seasonality. He argues that Bitcoin has often sold off into late February, sometimes bounced into the first week of March, and then rolled over again into April/May, citing 2014, 2018, and 2022 as analogs. He emphasizes that the absence of a blowoff-top euphoric phase does not necessarily mean the bear market will behave differently. Cowen then layers in longer-cycle indicators, saying Bitcoin has not yet meaningfully reached the 200-week moving average, realized price, balance price, or the point where supply in profit/loss typically confirms a durable low. …
Bitcoin may still get a reflexive bounce into early March, but that would be more likely a tradable countertrend move than the start of a durable reversal. The immediate tactical risk is mistaking seasonal strength for a cycle bottom.
Over the next few months, the base case is for Bitcoin to remain in a broader bear-market process with possible rebounds that fail below prior valuation anchors. A more bullish view would need confirmation from deeper washout signals and stronger evidence that the recurring spring rollover pattern has broken.
The structural message is that Bitcoin still behaves like a cyclical asset whose durable lows are often confirmed by valuation and supply metrics, not by sentiment alone. If that framework remains valid, then cycle lows can arrive well after the first meaningful selloff and even after sharp countertrend rallies.
Bitcoin has sold off into late February, which he says is a pattern seen before in midterm years.
He argues February weakness is common in prior midterm-cycle examples.
Bitcoin often sees a bounce in the first week of March after February weakness in midterm years.
He repeatedly cites 2014, 2018, and 2022 as analogs for early-March strength.
That early-March strength is more likely a local top than the end of the bear market.
He says the March bounce in prior cycles was followed by further declines into April/May.
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