Benjamin Cowen framed Bitcoin as still in a midterm-year bear market, gold as comparatively resilient, and stocks as due for at least a near-term correction, while repeatedly comparing the setup to prior cycle analogs. The stream was heavily interwoven with live chess commentary, subscription prompts, and answers to viewer questions about Bitcoin/gold ratios, Ethereum’s regression band, and macro timing.
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This was a live stream in which Benjamin Cowen opened by saying he would talk about Bitcoin, gold, and stocks, but spent a large portion of the video playing chess and explaining chess tactics to viewers. On markets, his core view was that Bitcoin remains in a bear-market-like phase after a large drawdown, with price action resembling prior midterm years where BTC drifts lower, potentially bounces later in February or early March, and may still have more downside before a durable bottom. He repeatedly referenced historical comparisons to 2022, 2018, 2014, and 2019, arguing that Bitcoin’s current year-to-date pattern is consistent with prior midterm-year weakness. He suggested that fear-and-greed readings can help identify short-term countertrend rallies but are not reliable as a standalone bottom signal. …
Near term, Bitcoin still looks like a bear-market chop trade with a real chance of a relief bounce into late February or early March, but Cowen treats that bounce as potentially fragile. Stocks look vulnerable to a modest correction, while gold remains comparatively constructive.
Over the next few weeks and months, his base case is continued midterm-year weakness in Bitcoin and delayed policy relief, with any rally needing to prove it can persist past the usual early-spring window. A real shift in view would require BTC, equities, and ratios to stop tracking the historical 2014/2018/2022 path.
Structurally, Cowen still believes the crypto market is operating inside a repeatable cycle framework, with Bitcoin needing time to reprice versus gold and other real assets before a durable new expansion begins. If that framework holds, the larger implication is persistent relative underperformance for crypto until the cycle matures.
Bitcoin is still acting like it is in a midterm-year bear market, with slow downside drift similar to prior cycles.
He directly compares current action to 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022 and says it looks standard for a midterm year.
A bounce in Bitcoin later in February into early March is possible, but it may fail after a few weeks and produce another rollover.
He cites prior years where early rallies faded within weeks and lower lows followed.
Fear and greed readings can help identify short-term countertrend moves, but they are not reliable as a standalone bottom signal.
He points to 2018 and 2019 as examples where fear and greed got very low yet prices still went lower later.
What is your Bitcoin versus gold thesis?
Ben argues Bitcoin against gold is an oscillator and will likely drop another 30% against gold this year. He sees it entering a macro consolidation period after an initial capitalization phase.
What is the Ethereum rainbow chart based on?
It is based on non-bubble historical data with extended ranges. The green line is the main one to look at as it is historically where Ethereum has bottomed, though it is not impossible for it to go below that band as it did last cycle.
Do you use Heiken Ashi candles?
Ben has used them, especially the monthly Heiken Ashi candles, to identify when bear markets end. While they do not have a perfect track record, historically when they stopped being red the bear market was over, though one cycle had a brief fakeout.
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