Real Vision’s Macro Mondays discusses how rising long bond yields, hot inflation prints, Iran-related oil risk, and the Trump/Xi summit are interacting with risk assets. Andreas Steno argues the old bond-yield playbook may be breaking down, while near-term market direction still hinges heavily on whether Iran oil tensions ease enough to cool inflation and support equities, especially semiconductors.
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This episode is a broad macro round-up framed around three main issues: the Trump/Xi summit, recent inflation data, and the Iran/oil situation, with a side discussion on long-dated bond yields and AI/data-center politics. The hosts open with sponsor copy, then Mossman introduces the show and Andreas Steno as co-host. The tone is conversational and tactical, with repeated references to the week’s macro news and what it means for assets. The central bond-market argument is that the long end of the yield curve may no longer behave the way investors learned over the 1980-2020 period. Andreas says the classic inverse-yield-curve signal may have lost predictive power in the current higher-yield regime, noting that the 2022-2023 uninversion did not produce the expected recession. …
Near term, the trade is all about whether Iran/oil headlines cool off fast enough to pull yields and inflation lower; if not, risk assets face another squeeze from the long end. Semis look fine tactically unless Asia demand data rolls over or bond yields keep spiking.
Over the next few weeks to months, the market likely stays constructive only if energy and inflation data soften in tandem. A de-escalation in the Middle East would help validate the rally; persistent price pressure would revive hawkish Fed risk and unwind crowded growth exposure.
Structurally, the episode argues that the old falling-yield macro regime may be over, which would weaken classic recession/yield-curve interpretations. The longer-term regime may instead be defined by higher-for-longer rates, geopolitical commodity shocks, and more regulation around AI infrastructure.
The old yield-curve playbook from the 1980-2020 falling-yield regime may no longer apply cleanly.
Andreas argues you cannot assume the same lessons hold in a different long-rate regime.
The recent uninversion of the yield curve did not produce the recession that investors had expected in 2022-2023.
He cites the failed recession call as evidence that the historic signal may be weakening.
Recent CPI and PPI data look worrying and revive the possibility of hawkish Fed action.
He says the consumer and producer inflation prints were hot and reminiscent of 2021 pressures.
Does Andrew Tate's life hack of buying 30-year bonds at 5% make sense?
Andreas says it's a classic example of 'how to get rich' — the easiest way is to inherit or get $50 million out of the blue. He doesn't see the hack, noting that it's easy to earn money if you already have $50 million.
How worried should we be about inflation after the hot prints we got last week?
Andreas found the trend pretty worrying, especially since the producer price inflation report was even nastier than the consumer one. He notes input cost inflation typically precedes consumers feeling the heat, and some signs are reminiscent of 2021. However, he flags that Ed Yardeni expects the FOMC to signal a tightening bias at the June meeting followed by a 25bp hike in July, which adds weight to the concern.
What do you make of the hot inflation reports and how worried should we be about inflation right now?
The guest initially found the trend worrying, noting the hot CPI followed by even nastier PPI data reminiscent of 2021. However, he disagrees with Ed Yardeni's call for rate hikes, arguing that stripping out energy, food, and shelter (which had a technical one-off due to a survey delay from the government shutdown) leaves little inflation. He thinks Kevin Walsh will use those excuses to stay soft on rates, but stresses the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz is key to avoiding rate hikes.
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