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Iran war: US in 'serious negotiations' as Trump calls off attack

Channel: LiveNOW from FOX Published: 2026-05-18 20:15
LiveNOW from FOX

This segment is a geopolitical market update on Trump delaying a planned strike on Iran while negotiations continue, with oil and shipping risk still elevated.

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Detailed summary

LiveNOW from Fox anchors Andy Mack and reporter Rebecca Caster, with Reuters’ Phil Stewart and Fox’s Ashley Webster, discuss President Trump calling off a planned military strike on Iran for now after requests from Gulf allies and claims that serious negotiations are underway. The segment frames the situation as a fragile pause rather than a resolution: Trump says US forces remain ready for a large-scale assault if talks fail, while reporters emphasize how far apart the sides still are on nuclear terms and how mistrust on both sides keeps escalation risk high. The broadcast also highlights market and economic spillovers: oil prices rose on renewed war fears, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical pressure point, and shipping disruptions are already significant. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Trump has paused a planned strike on Iran, but the military option is still explicitly on the table.
  2. Gulf states Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE reportedly pressed for a delay, suggesting regional pressure is affecting US timing.
  3. The reporters repeatedly stress that Iran and the US remain far apart, especially on uranium enrichment and stockpile commitments.
  4. Oil and shipping are the most immediate market channels: crude rose, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a major vulnerability.
  5. The segment frames the situation as unstable and reversible; a deal, framework, or renewed attack are all still plausible.
  6. Iran’s domestic economic strain is presented as a possible pressure point, but the broadcast does not claim it has already changed Tehran’s behavior.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Immediate setup is a headline-driven risk event: any confirmation that strikes are back on would likely hit oil, shipping, and broader risk sentiment first. Until then, the market is trading a temporary pause, not a resolved peace process.

  • Watch for any fresh statement from Trump, the Pentagon, or Iranian officials on whether talks are progressing or collapsing.
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  • The immediate market catalyst is escalation risk: any sign the strike is back on could reprice oil and energy transport fast.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains the key tactical flashpoint, with vessel disruptions already cited as evidence of stress.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks, the likely path is continued brinkmanship with intermittent negotiation headlines and recurring escalation risk. A durable de-escalation would require visible concessions on Iran’s nuclear program; absent that, markets should keep pricing a nontrivial chance of renewed conflict.

  • Over the next several weeks, the base case in the segment is continued brinkmanship rather than a clean resolution.
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  • A framework deal would need visible movement on core nuclear issues; without that, the ceasefire/negotiation pause may only buy time.
  • If talks stay stalled, the probability of renewed strikes rises, especially if the US concludes diplomacy is not producing concessions.
Long term

Structurally, this reinforces a persistent geopolitical premium around Middle East energy transit and US-Iran relations. The lasting regime implication is that Hormuz security and nuclear diplomacy remain major inputs to oil volatility and inflation risk.

  • The segment implies a durable regime of geopolitical risk premium around Gulf energy flows and Iran policy.
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  • A lasting implication is that nuclear negotiations, military deterrence, and shipping security are now tightly linked in one recurring crisis framework.
  • If this pattern repeats, markets may treat Iran headlines as a structural source of oil volatility rather than a one-off event.
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Key claims (8)

NEUTRAL Middle East escalation Iran

Trump has delayed a planned military strike on Iran because serious negotiations are underway and Gulf allies asked him to hold off.

The anchor and later reporting repeat that Trump called off the strike at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE while negotiations continue.

BEARISH Military escalation risk Iran

The US military remains ready to launch a large-scale assault on Iran if the talks fail.

Rebecca Caster says Trump is instructing forces to be ready to go forward at a moment's notice.

BEARISH Iran nuclear dispute Iran nuclear talks

The negotiating positions of Iran and the US remain very far apart, especially on uranium enrichment and stockpile handover.

Phil Stewart describes the latest Iranian counterproposal as still failing to meet the US demand to stop enrichment and hand over stockpiles.

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Assets discussed (3)

Oil
BULLISH commodity

Report says failed peace talks drove oil prices up and escalation risk remains elevated.

US dollar
UNCLEAR fx

Not directly discussed as a tradable reaction, but the clip centers on broader economic pressure; no explicit directional call.

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Speakers

GUEST Phil Stewart HOST Andy Mack SPEAKER Ashley Webster SPEAKER Rebecca Caster

Interview (7 Q&A)

military strike decision

How close was President Trump to giving the go-ahead on the military attack plan against Iran before it was called off?

Phil Stewart says the administration had been thinking for many weeks that renewed hostilities could result if no framework agreement was reached. The two sides still appear far apart, so the latest reprieve may just be a little more time on the clock.

military strike scope

If the attack did go forward, what would it have looked like — was it the bridges and power plants that had been threatened before?

Phil Stewart says it's unclear, but Trump's priority has been reopening the Strait of Hormuz, so experts think the attack would target fortified positions there. Secretary Hegseth has spoken about monitoring where Iran has been digging out armaments and fortifying positions. The Pentagon has a long list of targets developed over the entire period.

Iran strategic reaction

Does the fact that Iran now knows the US had planned an attack change any future plans, since the threat is now in the open?

Phil Stewart says this is the real problem — both sides have so little trust that each had been preparing for a potential failure of talks for some time. Iran has been setting signals for their people to expect more pain and conflict. Trump's threats haven't seemed to move Iran's maximalist negotiating positions, and the US hasn't changed its either, so many are skeptical talks can result in a near-term peace agreement.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The segment leans on the idea that serious negotiations are underway, but provides little concrete evidence of real convergence beyond delayed action.
  • It suggests a possible deal on Iran’s nuclear program, yet the transcript itself notes the sides remain far apart on enrichment and stockpile demands.
  • The report implies Gulf states wanted the strike delayed, but also acknowledges mixed behavior from those same states, making their true influence unclear.
  • Claims about an imminent refined-fuel shortage are mentioned without detailed sourcing or mechanism in this clip.
  • The framing that Iran’s economy may force a peace deal is speculative; the segment does not show direct proof of that causal link.

Topics

Iran negotiationsTrump military postureStrait of Hormuzoil pricesGulf state influenceUS-Iran nuclear disputeregional securityshipping disruptions

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