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« Nous venons de prendre un cours d’art de la guerre à la chinoise » - François Asselineau

Channel: Tocsin Published: 2026-05-19 05:00
Tocsin

François Asselineau argues that the Trump–Xi meeting exposed a major shift in global power, with China now able to pressure the United States on Taiwan, chips, and broader strategic issues. He frames the encounter as a lesson in Chinese statecraft, historical depth, and Sun Tzu-style patience, while using it to criticize Western ignorance, NATO/EU irrelevance, and France’s strategic decline.

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Detailed summary

This segment of Tocsin is an extended interview between the host and François Asselineau, identified as president of the UPR. The conversation begins with light political context, then quickly centers on the Trump–Xi meeting in Beijing. Asselineau’s core thesis is that the meeting symbolized a historic shift in power: in his view, China has become the first world power, and the United States arrived from a position of weakness despite Trump’s rhetoric. A large part of the discussion is devoted to Taiwan. Asselineau insists that Taiwan is historically part of China and that Beijing will never allow it to become independent. He argues that Xi’s reference to the “Thucydides Trap” was a deliberate strategic signal showing that Chinese leaders understand Western strategic thought, while Western leaders do not understand China’s historical self-conception. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Asselineau treats the Trump–Xi meeting as a symbolic admission of China’s strategic primacy.
  2. He sees Taiwan as the central flashpoint and says Beijing will never accept its independence.
  3. He argues Xi used the “Thucydides Trap” to signal awareness of U.S. decline and strategic containment.
  4. He presents China as pacific in rhetoric but formidable in long-term state capacity and industrial mobilization.
  5. He says Western leaders, especially Americans, misread China because they lack historical and cultural understanding.
  6. He ties the China discussion to a broader critique of NATO, the EU, and France’s loss of sovereignty.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, the immediate read is that Beijing has the upper hand in the Trump-Xi narrative, so any near-term China-related headlines are more likely to pressure U.S. hawks than to force Chinese concessions. The main risk is renewed escalation on Taiwan or chips if Washington overreads its room to maneuver.

  • The immediate focus is the fallout from the Trump–Xi meeting, especially Trump’s public comments on Taiwan and the optics of weakness.
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  • A near-term variable is whether Beijing uses the meeting to temper U.S. moves on Taiwan, chips, and trade or whether tensions re-escalate quickly.
  • The host and guest both point to Putin’s arrival in Beijing as the next immediate diplomatic event to watch.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the likely path in this framing is continued Chinese strategic patience: gradual normalization of its industrial base, selective trade concessions, and resistance to U.S. pressure without open confrontation. Confirmation would come from Beijing maintaining leverage on chips, Taiwan, and supply chains while Washington fails to assemble a stronger coalition.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, Asselineau’s base case is that China continues consolidating strategic advantage without needing open conflict.
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  • He expects U.S. leverage to erode further if Washington keeps relying on tariffs, chip controls, and pressure on Taiwan.
  • He thinks Beijing will keep using selective pressure and patience rather than direct escalation, especially to avoid destabilizing its broader rise.
Long term

The structural thesis is that the center of gravity is shifting toward a Beijing-centered order, with China increasingly setting the terms for diplomacy, industrial policy, and great-power bargaining. In that regime, Western influence depends less on moral claims and more on whether individual states retain sovereign strategic capacity.

  • Structurally, he argues the world is moving into a China-centered order where Beijing becomes the main reference point for diplomacy and industrial power.
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  • He believes China’s long civilizational continuity, state control, and cultural cohesion make it a durable strategic competitor to the West.
  • He treats the decline of U.S./EU moral authority as a lasting regime shift, not a temporary cycle.
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Key claims (9)

BULLISH U.S.-China power shift

Xi’s reference to the Thucydides Trap signaled that China understands the U.S. fears being overtaken and is willing to say so openly.

Asselineau interprets Xi’s language as a strategic message about power transition and U.S. decline.

BEARISH global power shift U.S. / China

The Trump-Xi meeting showed that the United States arrived in a position of weakness and left with little to show for it.

He says Trump got almost nothing beyond small trade gestures and looked subdued.

BEARISH Taiwan sovereignty Taiwan

Taiwan is historically and politically inseparable from China, and Beijing will never allow it to become independent.

This is his strongest territorial thesis, backed by a long historical narrative.

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Assets discussed (9)

China
BULLISH other

Presented as the rising strategic and industrial winner in the global balance of power.

Taiwan
BEARISH other

Described as unable to achieve independence and likely to remain under intense Chinese pressure.

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Speakers

HOST Clément Souakova GUEST François Asselineau HOST François Lino

Interview (10 Q&A)

Trump-Xi rencontre

Quelle est votre analyse de la rencontre Trump-Xi Jinping et de l'utilisation du terme 'piège de Thucydide' par Xi Jinping ?

François Asselineau insiste d'abord sur la prononciation correcte de Xi Jinping, puis explique que les Occidentaux et Américains combattent un pays et un système qu'ils ne connaissent pas. Il détaille l'histoire de Taïwan depuis la dynastie Ming pour montrer que les Chinois ne laisseront jamais Taïwan devenir indépendant. Il analyse ensuite la référence au 'piège de Thucydide' comme un signal que Xi Jinping sait que les Américains craignent d'être dépassés et les prévient que si les États-Unis continuent sur Taïwan, cela mènera à la guerre. Il note que Trump a compris qu'il n'avait pas les cartes en main sur ce dossier.

résultat visite Trump

Êtes-vous d'accord que l'image de Trump revenant de Chine la tête rentrée dans les épaules est révélatrice, ou est-ce une surinterprétation ?

L'intervenant répond que Trump n'a rien obtenu de substantiel : il a vendu 200 Boeing mais en attendait 500, et les Chinois achètent selon leur propre calendrier. Ils n'avaient pas acheté de Boeing depuis 17 ans, c'était le moment pour eux d'en racheter, et ils développent leur propre concurrent (C919). Les gestes chinois servent leurs intérêts, pas ceux de Trump.

Trump/Xi rencontre

Est-ce que Donald Trump pensait vraiment qu'il obtiendrait le soutien de Xi Jinping en arrivant en situation de faiblesse ?

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that the meeting officially confirmed China as the world’s first power is more interpretive than demonstrated.
  • Several historical digressions are used as evidence, but the transcript does not rigorously connect them to the present policy question.
  • The assertion that Nvidia’s China market will fall to zero is stated with excessive certainty and little sourcing.
  • He strongly asserts China will never allow Taiwan independence, but does not engage with escalation risks or counter-strategies in detail.
  • The idea that the U.S. can’t manage multiple conflicts at once is plausible, but he treats it as settled rather than argued.
  • His claim that China’s model is broadly pacific sits uneasily alongside repeated references to military buildup and coercive state power.

Topics

Trump-Xi meetingTaiwanThucydides TrapChina-U.S. power shiftSun Tzu / Art of WarNvidia and semiconductorsBoeing and tradeRussia-China-U.S. triangleFrance sovereigntyEU/NATO critique

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