A LiveNOW from Fox segment reports that Trump paused a planned strike on Iran and is leaning on negotiations instead, while a Middle East expert argues both sides still have leverage and are stuck in an escalation trap.
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The segment opens with anchor Carl Laahara summarizing reports that President Trump paused a planned attack on Iran after a peace proposal was sent to Washington and said there is a “very good chance” of a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program. The discussion centers on whether Trump’s threat posture strengthens U.S. leverage or instead locks both sides into a dangerous escalation cycle. Guest Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy, argues that the U.S. can inflict serious military damage but may not be able to translate that into a political outcome or a better deal. He says Iran also retains meaningful leverage, so escalation may not bring capitulation or a settlement. …
Near term, this is a headline-risk setup: any sign the pause turns into a real negotiating track can cool tensions, but failure or mixed messaging could quickly reprice fear around Iran escalation.
Over the next few weeks, the likely path is intermittent diplomacy under threat, with the market watching for direct talks, Gulf-state mediation, and any shift from ultimata to real concessions. A durable improvement in sentiment needs proof that both sides see more upside in negotiation than escalation.
The deeper issue is a recurring Middle East security vacuum: without a broader regional framework, crises around Iran, the Gulf states, and external powers will keep resurfacing. The transcript implies that lasting stability depends less on any one strike decision than on whether a new security order can be built.
Trump paused a planned attack on Iran and said there is a very good chance of reaching a deal limiting Iran's nuclear program.
Anchor news claim introduced at the start of the segment from Reuters/AP reporting and Trump remarks.
The U.S. can inflict significant damage on Iran, but that may not translate into a political outcome or a better deal.
Guest argues kinetic power is not the same as leverage toward settlement.
The U.S. and Iran are in an escalation trap where escalation may not bring capitulation or a deal.
Central analytical frame used by Harrison repeatedly.
To what extent does President Trump's approach strengthen or weaken US leverage with Iran?
Harrison says the US can inflict significant military damage but there's no clear sense of what that damage would do to create a political outcome or bring resolution. He describes the US as caught in an 'escalation trap' — escalating with military force won't bring Iran closer to capitulation or a deal, but deescalation could weaken the president's negotiating position.
How are Gulf Arab states behind the scenes encouraging and helping with deescalation?
Harrison explains that Gulf states share an interest in deescalation but have very different objectives and have been affected differently — the UAE was hit the most with about 3,000 missile strikes while Qatar had 7-800. He says they discovered the US security umbrella was 'not a shield, it was actually a boomerang and a target,' making them more vulnerable. Their economic visions (like Saudi Vision 2030) assumed stability, and continued conflict threatens their futures more than it threatens the US.
Has the dynamic among Gulf Arab nations shifted or changed significantly since the start of this war?
Harrison says major rifts existed pre-war between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Sudan and Yemen, and the war brought them together temporarily. He describes that in Doha, Qataris were furious with Iran early on after their gas terminal was hit, but over time they understood Iran's strategic logic — that Iran would strike US interests close to them when facing an existential threat. He suggests the US will face questions about whether it and Israel are stabilizing or destabilizing forces.
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