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Trump’s Old and Shrinking Republican Party | Morning Shots LIVE

Channel: The Bulwark Published: 2026-05-19 09:56
The Bulwark

A Morning Shots Live episode centered on Trump’s escalating use of government power for personal and political grievance projects, especially a reported $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization” settlement fund. The hosts also discussed Trump’s weakening approval, the Republican Party’s shrinking Trump coalition, and the tactical implications for the 2026 midterms.

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Detailed summary

Andrew Egger and Bill Kristol opened with a brief, non-political acknowledgment of the mass shooting at a mosque in San Diego, emphasizing the horror of the attack, the apparent heroism of a long-serving Muslim security guard, and the importance of solidarity across religious communities. The main segment focused on a newly reported Trump-backed settlement arrangement tied to a tax-return lawsuit. The hosts described it as a $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization fund” that would pay people who claim they were targeted by lawfare during the Biden years, but they argued the structure is unusually unaccountable, opaque, and potentially corrupt. They emphasized that the fund appears designed to be controlled by commissioners appointed by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, with little or no oversight, no appeals, no judicial review, and no meaningful transparency. …

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Main takeaways

  1. The settlement fund is framed as a major corruption and separation-of-powers scandal, not just a legal technicality.
  2. The fund appears to lack normal checks: no appeals, no judicial review, and broad discretion for handpicked commissioners.
  3. Trump’s approval has been drifting lower steadily in 2026, and that decline is now showing up in generic-ballot weakness.
  4. There is a pronounced age split inside the Republican coalition: older Republicans remain loyal, younger ones are increasingly unstable.
  5. The hosts see a real risk that some anti-Trump youth defections could flow to even more extremist, online-reactionary politics.
  6. The summer is presented as the key window for midterm trend formation and Republican course correction, if any is possible.
  7. The episode treats Trump’s second term as more norm-breaking and openly self-serving than the first.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Immediately, the setup is negative for Trump and for any Trump-linked political trades: the settlement-fund story is a fresh scandal, and the approval drift is still moving the wrong way. The near-term risk is further headline acceleration rather than stabilization.

  • The immediate catalyst is the newly disclosed settlement-fund structure and the congressional reaction to it, especially whether Republicans defend or distance themselves.
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  • Watch for whether Congress moves to force votes on the $1.776 billion fund or whether the White House can muscle it through.
  • The most actionable near-term political risk is reputational: the fund story adds another visible corruption headline to a president already sliding in the polls.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the base case is continued erosion in Trump approval and a wider Republican generic-ballot deficit unless he finds a major course-correction. The key confirmation will be whether summer polling and special-election signals keep deteriorating into the fall.

  • Over the next several weeks and months, the key issue is whether Trump’s approval decline keeps grinding lower at roughly the same pace or accelerates.
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  • If the generic ballot continues widening, the narrative shifts from “Trump is unpopular” to “Republicans are headed for a meaningful midterm beatdown.”
  • The summer is likely to determine whether the 2026 political environment hardens into a durable anti-Republican trend or pauses.
Long term

Structurally, the episode argues that Trump is deepening a durable pattern of executive personalization and institutional bypass that may outlast any single controversy. For the GOP, the long-run implication is a possible split between older loyalists and younger, more volatile factions, with no guarantee the post-Trump right becomes more moderate.

  • Structurally, the episode argues Trump is normalizing a more openly personalized, grievance-driven presidency that bypasses traditional institutional constraints.
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  • The broader regime implication is that future presidents may test how much power can be exercised through settlement structures, executive control, and legal gray zones.
  • The long-run question for the GOP is whether the party remains tightly fused to Trump or gradually fragments into normie conservatives and more extreme online reactionaries.
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Key claims (7)

BEARISH institutional corruption Trump settlement fund

Trump’s proposed anti-weaponization settlement fund is a huge, unaccountable slush fund that circumvents normal legal and budgetary processes.

The hosts repeatedly describe it as opaque, self-directed, and detached from ordinary judicial oversight.

BEARISH legal process Trump settlement fund

The settlement agreement appears to block appeals, judicial review, and meaningful transparency over who receives money.

They walk through the terms and emphasize the lack of external challenge or review.

BEARISH political sentiment Donald Trump approval

Trump’s approval has been slipping by about one point per month in 2026.

Kristol cites multiple polls and describes a steady monthly decline rather than a collapse.

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Assets discussed (5)

Trump settlement fund
BEARISH other

The hosts portray it as a corrupt, legally dubious, and politically damaging mechanism that increases scandal risk for the administration.

Republican Party
BEARISH other

They argue the party is becoming more narrowly tied to Trump and facing eroding support, especially among younger voters.

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Interview (13 Q&A)

San Diego mosque shooting

Bill, can you talk a little bit about what happened with the mass shooting at a mosque in San Diego and what we know about it so far?

Bill describes that three people died, a security guard acted admirably, and notes that the official Jewish community organization of California expressed a strong statement of solidarity with the Muslim community. He says attacks on religious institutions of all kinds have occurred and it would be nice if it all stopped.

Trump settlement fund expectations

When ABC first reported that Trump was going to drop his IRS lawsuit in exchange for setting up the $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund, did you think it would actually happen or did you think maybe they'd step back from it?

Bill says he thought it would happen because in the second term, every shameless idea they have, they execute. He notes he was surprised the general counsel of Treasury resigned over it. He adds that no Republican on the Hill has objected, and the point of the second term is to keep crossing bridges to even further lawlessness.

settlement fund eligibility

Will individuals who assaulted Capitol Hill police officers be eligible for this fund?

The clip cuts off before Todd Blanch provides a full answer. He begins 'Well, as it makes plain, anybody just let me know' but the answer is not completed in the available transcript.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The hosts imply the judge may be unable to challenge the settlement because it was not docketed, but the legal limits on judicial review are not fully resolved in the transcript.
  • They treat the fund as clearly corrupt and potentially criminal, but they do not establish the full legal merits beyond describing the structure.
  • The view that younger Republican defections are broadly reassuring is tempered by a plausible counterpoint: some of the defections may be toward more extreme politics rather than moderation.
  • Their polling interpretation assumes the approval decline will continue translating into electoral weakness; that remains an inference rather than a proven outcome.
  • They suggest Congress can stop the fund, but the practical enforcement path is left unresolved if the White House resists.

Topics

Trump settlement fundlawfare and weaponizationCongress power of the purseRepublican approval declinegeneric ballotyoung Republicansonline right extremismmass shooting in San DiegoWhite House ballroom2026 midterms

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