Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on two threads: Trump’s tariff turmoil and the accelerating AI buildout. Andreas Steno argued the new tariff move is mostly noise at the direct GDP/inflation level but still meaningful for geopolitics, China retaliation risk, and cyclical uncertainty into April; on AI, he said the market is still too skeptical despite rapid real-world adoption.
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The episode opened with Miguel Osman and Andreas Steno previewing a macro-heavy week on Real Vision and then quickly moved to the weekend tariff headlines. Andreas said he was annoyed by the renewed tariff noise and argued that the Supreme Court’s ruling against the IEEPA tariffs forced Trump into broader 10% then 15% tariffs in a way that looked reactive rather than carefully planned. He emphasized that the deal structure with partners such as the EU is now in question because trade partners are unlikely to accept shifting terms after prior deals were supposedly agreed. A major theme was that tariffs remain politically and legally unstable. The hosts noted that the latest sector 301 tariffs are only temporary for 150 days and would need congressional support to become durable. …
Tactically, tariff volatility is the main near-term risk: headline-driven swings, China retaliation risk, and legal uncertainty could pressure cyclicals and keep metals supported.
Over the next few months, the market likely trades through another tariff-and-retaliation cycle while the direct macro hit stays limited unless the April U.S.-China negotiations break down. Validation would come from whether growth momentum and inflation remain stable despite the policy noise.
Structurally, the episode suggests U.S. trade policy is becoming more constrained by courts and Congress, while China’s supply-chain leverage remains a persistent strategic risk. Separately, AI may keep compounding even if equity markets are skeptical, which could eventually force a re-rating of productivity assumptions.
The latest tariff move looks reactive and not fully prepared.
Andreas says he does not have the impression the move was particularly prepared and describes it as a knee-jerk reaction to the court ruling.
The EU may refuse to ratify or honor the prior trade arrangement if tariff terms keep changing.
They argue a deal is a deal and ask why the EU would work together if the terms are no longer valid.
Trump’s tariff power is legally limited and may require congressional approval to become durable.
They state the 150-day tariffs would need ratification and that codifying tariffs through Congress would change the structure and reduce Trump’s discretion.
How are you feeling today after the weekend developments on tariffs?
Andreas says he is annoyed by what happened over the weekend with tariffs and had hoped the topic was settled. He thinks the issue is being blown out of proportion and expects tariffs are here to stay for now.
Were the new broad tariff moves by Trump prepared, or were they a knee-jerk reaction?
Andreas says it did not feel particularly prepared. He explains the different tariff rates were tied to country-specific political pressure, and he argues the EU deal is now in doubt because it no longer looks reliable.
Where do these tariff developments leave Trump ahead of the April meeting with Xi?
Andreas says Trump is in a weaker position because China does not face the same domestic constraints and can act more freely. He fears China may use the period before the talks to weaponize supply chains, especially rare earths, to test whether the US can retaliate.
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