Ben Cowan argues Bitcoin is still in a midterm-year bear market and likely has more downside before a true bottom, with possible tests of 60K and even 40-50K before a later recovery. He frames the weakness as part of a broader late-business-cycle regime where risk assets rotate down the curve from alts to Bitcoin to stocks to gold.
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This interview centers on Ben Cowan’s updated 2026 outlook for Bitcoin and crypto. Cowan says he remains bearish in the medium term, arguing that Bitcoin’s current drawdown is consistent with prior midterm years and that the cycle likely still has months of weakness ahead. He emphasizes recurring cycle behavior: midterm years are historically weak for Bitcoin, rallies in this phase often prove to be countertrend bounces, and true bear-market lows tend to arrive only after more time and further downside. A key part of his thesis is that Bitcoin has not yet reached the kinds of conditions that historically marked major bottoms. He points to historical bear markets where Bitcoin fell below both realized price and balance price, noting that this has not yet happened in the current cycle. …
Tactically, Bitcoin looks vulnerable to another roll-over after the current bounce, with the next few weeks prone to lower highs and failed breakout attempts if macro conditions stay loose only on the surface. A quick reclaim of trend would require an unusually strong liquidity response, which Ben does not expect.
Over the next several months, the base case is a continued bear-market grind with repeated tests of lower support and no durable altseason. Confirmation would come from deeper on-chain deterioration and a real shift in liquidity and business-cycle conditions; absent that, rallies are likely to be sold.
Structurally, Ben sees Bitcoin as the main crypto asset that survives late-cycle cleanup, while altcoins remain highly dependent on easy liquidity and fresh retail inflows. The regime implication is that future broad crypto outperformance likely requires a new expansion phase, not just better sentiment or friendlier regulation.
Bitcoin is still in a midterm-year bear market and likely has further downside through 2026.
He repeatedly says the current year is historically weak for Bitcoin and expects lower prices later in the year.
The current Bitcoin bear market may end up being around a 70% drawdown, plus or minus 4-5%.
He gives a numerical target based on diminishing bear-market losses across prior cycles.
Bitcoin has not yet reached the on-chain conditions that historically marked durable bear-market lows.
He says realized price, balance price, and related metrics have not been breached the way they were in prior cycles.
Is this the Bitcoin bottom?
Ben says no, he does not think the bottom is in yet and expects Bitcoin to go lower over the year.
What would need to happen for Bitcoin to double to 150K before June?
He says an extraordinary money-printing response like 2020 would be required, but that would likely only come after a crisis that first pushes risk assets lower.
What happened to retail participation in crypto?
He says speculative excess left as prices fell; many retail participants likely left crypto altogether rather than rotating into other markets.
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