Gareth Soloway argues the market’s post–Truth Social rally was a weak, likely temporary bounce, with the bigger chart setup still pointing lower. He mixes a market-structure read on the S&P, Nasdaq, mega-cap tech, rates, gold, oil, silver, Bitcoin, and selected consumer staples with a strong claim that a $1.5B S&P futures trade and an oil short appeared minutes before the post, suggesting insider-style information leakage.
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This episode is a market-open style briefing centered on chart levels and near-term positioning. Gareth Soloway introduces himself as a technical analyst and says he uses charts rather than narratives. He opens with a strong allegation: a $1.5 billion S&P futures trade and a $150 million oil short were allegedly placed minutes before a Truth Social post that eased fears about Middle East escalation. He frames this as evidence of coordinated information leakage and elite enrichment, while acknowledging it may have happened in past presidencies as well. From there, he moves asset by asset. He says the S&P 500’s rally after the post was not especially strong and closed with a long upper tail, which he interprets as a weak close. He expects more sideways chop or a short-term bounce, but thinks the larger pattern is still bearish and likely to resolve lower. …
Tactically, the setup looks like a weak relief rally inside a choppy tape, with the next move likely to depend on whether the post-news bounce can hold key support. If the highs fail to extend and yields stay elevated, the risk is for another leg lower rather than a clean breakout.
Over the next several weeks, the base case is range-to-lower price action for equities, with occasional tech bounces that fail unless key trendlines and support zones are reclaimed. The path changes if oil keeps falling, yields cool off, and more major indexes confirm higher lows instead of rolling over.
Structurally, he is arguing that the market may be transitioning into a more hostile regime where rate pressure, debt stress, and failed breakouts matter more than narrative-driven optimism. In that world, dividend-paying value and disciplined technical confirmation matter more than high-multiple growth leadership.
A $1.5 billion S&P futures trade occurred about five minutes before a Truth Social post, and a $150 million oil short was placed at the same time before oil dropped sharply.
He presents the timing and subsequent price moves as evidence of suspicious pre-news trading.
The post-news market rally was not especially strong and has mostly gone sideways to lower since then.
He argues the move did not sustain follow-through after the initial spike.
The S&P 500’s daily candle showed a weak close with a long upper tail, suggesting the rally was sold and may resolve lower after more chop.
He uses the candle shape to infer rejection at higher prices.
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