Rafael Grossi used the Reuters briefing to argue that the IAEA still needs access, verification, and diplomacy in Iran, even as military escalation makes inspections impossible in the near term. He also fielded questions on DPRK, Ukraine, South Korea’s naval nuclear ambitions, India’s nuclear buildout, the Philippines, Singapore, and the impact of AI/data-center demand on nuclear regulation.
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Grossi’s core message was that nuclear risk management depends on verification and engagement, not just political agreements. On Iran, he said the IAEA needs restored access to crucial facilities and stressed that there has been a nearly one-year gap in inspections after the June war period, leaving unresolved questions about safeguards and possible diversion of nuclear material. He repeatedly framed the IAEA’s role as technical and independent: if Iran and the U.S. or other parties reach an agreement, it still must be grounded in IAEA verification, otherwise it is “an illusion of an agreement” and “a piece of paper.” He acknowledged that the immediate environment is worse, not better. …
Near term, the setup is headline-driven: Iran escalation and any ceasefire signal can quickly change the verification backdrop. For nuclear markets, the immediate risk is renewed conflict around facilities rather than any clean policy breakthrough.
Over the coming weeks and months, the base case is continued friction with intermittent diplomacy, while the IAEA tries to recover access and define technical terms for any deal. Nuclear buildout themes should stay constructive, but country-specific progress will depend on political decisions and regulatory execution.
Structurally, the briefing supports a regime where nuclear power is gaining importance for energy-security and AI-demand reasons, but under tighter safeguards pressure. The lasting implication is that the IAEA remains central as the verification institution whenever states push into sensitive fuel-cycle or naval-nuclear territory.
Iran cannot be properly assessed without renewed access and verification at key facilities.
He says the IAEA has had almost a year without access to crucial sites and needs compliance verification under the NPT to rule out diversion or illicit activity.
Active shelling makes inspections impossible, but dialogue with Iran should continue through other channels.
He says inspections stop during shelling, yet engagement is still needed and sporadic contacts remain.
Any Iran-U.S. deal without IAEA verification would be meaningless from a safeguards standpoint.
He argues that even if two states agree, the agency must verify compliance or the agreement is just paper.
Do you feel like things are moving in the right direction toward re-engagement with Iran, given the current missile attacks and tensions?
Grossi acknowledges it's a complicated phase with attacks picking up and hostile rhetoric, but says his message remains the same: engagement is needed. He notes that while shelling prevents inspections, dialogue can take other forms. He describes the channel of communication with Iran as essentially broken, with only sporadic contacts with the foreign minister.
Now that the snapback mechanism has been activated and UN resolutions require Iran to suspend enrichment, will the IAEA verify only safeguards obligations or also compliance with suspension requirements?
Grossi says in principle they would need to verify that, but they are not doing it at the moment due to a combination of military activity and Iran not re-engaging.
Can the US and Iran decide on the duration of nuclear restrictions or the status of nuclear material without technical assessment from the IAEA, and what would the IAEA's role be?
Grossi says they can agree to whatever they want, but he hopes they won't, because an agreement without proper verification is an illusion — just a piece of paper where you don't know if terms are being complied with. He believes there is recognition that the IAEA must play a very important role.
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