Marc Touati argues that the Iran/Strait of Hormuz shock is already creating a real oil and inflation problem, but he does not believe in a $200/barrel outcome. He thinks the damage will eventually slow global growth enough to cap oil, while equities are still being supported by AI-related flows and an unusually strong U.S. economy, in contrast to a weakening France and euro area.
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Marc Touati’s core thesis is that the current Middle East conflict has created a genuine oil shock, but that the market is overestimating the chances of an extreme, sustained oil spike. He says he does not believe in a $200 barrel scenario, even if Hormuz remains shut for weeks, because prices above equilibrium eventually hurt global activity, reduce demand, and force oil back down. In his view, the bigger problem is not just inflation, but the broader economic slowdown and shortages that an energy shock can trigger. He repeatedly emphasizes that oil around the high-$90s already represents a serious shock. He cites the world economy slowing to about 1.8% growth, well below the long-run norm of 3.5%, and says this environment makes a prolonged oil surge unsustainable. …
Near term, the actionable risk is that oil and commodity prices stay elevated if Hormuz tensions persist, keeping inflation sticky and rates under upward pressure. Equities can still levitate on AI leadership, but that cushion looks vulnerable if the conflict drags on or rate expectations reprice.
Over the next few months, Touati expects growth damage to overwhelm the initial oil spike, capping crude and pressuring cyclicals, while inflation stays uncomfortable. France and the euro area look like the weakest link, with recession and fiscal stress likely to become more visible.
Structurally, he sees a widening split between growth-capable economies like the U.S. and fiscally constrained Europe, especially France. The lasting implication is that debt, taxes, and low structural growth are the core regime risks for France, while reserve-currency status and stronger productivity keep the U.S. advantaged.
He does not believe oil can sustainably reach $200 per barrel, even with Hormuz disruptions.
He directly rejects the extreme bullish oil forecast and cites prior episodes where similar fears proved excessive.
The current oil level around the high-$90s is already a real shock and not a trivial move.
He says oil is expensive relative to equilibrium and describes the situation as a shock pétrolier.
If Hormuz stays shut for weeks, the main damage will be to activity and supply chains, not just to inflation.
He argues shortages in fertilizers, raw materials, and heavy crude would hurt output more than prices themselves.
Que se passe-t-il si dans un mois ou deux mois, Ormouz est toujours fermé pour le pétrole ?
Le vrai danger est celui des pénuries, notamment de matières premières, d'engrais (déjà le cas), et possiblement de pétrole lourd. Cela entraînerait moins d'activité économique et des pénuries de plastique par exemple. L'impact serait plus grave sur l'activité que sur l'inflation, qui devrait monter à 4-5% aux États-Unis et 3,5-4% en France.
À quel moment la prolongation du conflit en Iran affecte-t-elle les marchés boursiers, ce qui n'est pas le cas jusqu'à présent ?
Jusqu'à présent, les marchés sont boostés par la révolution de l'IA qui compense les tensions géopolitiques. L'écart entre valorisations tech et bourse classique n'a jamais été aussi élevé. La nouveauté est que les entreprises d'IA font des profits, ce qui limite la bulle. Mais l'inflation élevée et la hausse des taux d'intérêt vont finir par calmer les marchés boursiers.
Les investisseurs se fichent-ils de l'évolution du conflit ?
Les investisseurs arrivent à se convaincre que ça ne sera pas la troisième guerre mondiale, comme au début de la guerre en Ukraine. Ils tablent sur un apaisement du conflit et espèrent une paix dans la région, même si ce n'est pas encore le cas.
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