This interview argues India’s submarine force is structurally behind schedule and at risk of a capability gap in the 2030s. The guest, Rear Admiral Chandra Shaker Rao, says the core issue is not lack of naval intent or design ability, but long delays, sequential execution instead of parallel programs, and weak industrial continuity in submarine production.
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The video is a focused interview on India’s submarine program, anchored by Sneh Alex Phillip’s framing that India currently operates 19 submarines, but only 16 are Navy-operated if SSBNs are excluded. The core thesis from Rear Admiral Chandra Shaker Rao is that India’s submarine shortfall is not primarily a matter of strategic neglect or lack of technical competence; it is a program-execution problem caused by delayed decisions, serial procurement logic, and an industrial base that has not been kept warm through continuous production. He repeatedly stresses that the Navy, shipyards, and designers can build conventional submarines, but the country has not converted that capability into hardware fast enough. Rao walks through the 1999 CCS submarine plan as the key historical reference point. …
Tactically, the setup is about whether India finally signs and sequences its submarine orders fast enough to avoid more idle-capacity damage. The near-term risk is further delay; the actionable catalyst is contract award and yard allocation.
Over the next few quarters to years, the thesis is that India can still narrow the gap if 75I, 76, and industrial component development proceed in parallel. If the program stays serial and slow, the 2030s fleet will remain underbuilt relative to the plan.
Structurally, the interview argues that undersea power depends on sustained industrial throughput, not one-off procurements. If India keeps submarine production continuous and develops key domestic components, it can build a durable maritime deterrent ecosystem.
India operates 19 submarines, but only 16 are truly Navy-operated if SSBNs are excluded.
The host gives the count and the guest corrects the operational framing.
India is short of submarines versus its original 1999 plan and most older boats should already be at end of life.
He says the fleet is behind schedule and replacements should already be underway.
The main delay came from turning two intended concurrent submarine lines into sequential programs.
This is his central explanation for why the plan slipped.
When you look at India's submarine strength as of today, what is the feeling that you get?
Rear Admiral Rao notes India operates only 16 submarines (excluding SSBNs) compared to the 20-24 envisioned in the 1999 plan. Apart from the Scorpene submarines, all others are at end-of-life and should have had replacements rolling out by now. He says India is short of submarines and the ones it has are not the latest.
By 2028 or 2030 Pakistan will get at least six new submarines — do you see India's current advantage over Pakistan shrinking?
Rao says he wouldn't be too worried about numerical comparisons alone — capability depends on how submarines are operated and the skill of the people. However, Pakistan's new submarines are AIP-equipped and state-of-the-art, while India may only have one or two AIP submarines by then, so India would be short in terms of capabilities.
Was Project 75I originally meant to be of Russian origin and how did the thinking change?
Rao explains that 75I was initially mooted as eastern/Russian origin, consistent with the 1999 CCS plan's two-line approach. But within the navy a debate took place — whether 75I should be another six Scorpions (establishing two lines of Scorpion) or Russian, and opinions varied. The transcript cuts off mid-explanation at the end of this chunk.
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