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John Avlon’s Final Warning (w/ Rye Barcott) | How to Fix It

Channel: The Bulwark Published: 2026-06-14 06:00
The Bulwark

John Avlon’s final Bulwark episode is an interview about Ry Barcott’s book Courage Can Save Us and the broader case that courage, service, and bipartisan trust are scarce but necessary in U.S. politics. The conversation links military service, national service, and civic education to the health of Congress, arguing that polarization and partisan incentives punish cross-party problem solving.

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Detailed summary

This episode is structured as a farewell from John Avlon and a long interview with Ry Barcott about Barcott’s new book, Courage Can Save Us. Avlon opens by saying he is wrapping up his two-year run on The Bulwark feed, but the show will continue with a new partner. He frames the episode as fitting for a closing chapter because it centers on courage, service, and the kind of civic leadership he has tried to spotlight across the show. Barcott says the book grew out of his work co-founding With Honor roughly eight years ago to help address polarization in Congress by supporting veterans and service-minded candidates. He says he selected five Republicans and five Democrats who are current officeholders and whose careers reveal moments of moral courage, often defined as choosing to serve something larger than oneself despite personal or political risk. …

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Main takeaways

  1. The conversation’s core thesis is that courage is a civic virtue, not just a personality trait, and U.S. politics rewards the opposite: conformity, tribal loyalty, and self-protection.
  2. Barcott’s book uses sitting members of Congress and governors to show that moral courage often appears as unpopular votes, cross-party cooperation, or sticking to a mission despite political cost.
  3. Service is presented as a practical antidote to polarization: military service, national service, JROTC, and civic education all create shared identity and trust.
  4. The current political environment is described as structurally hostile to bipartisan behavior because safe districts and primary incentives punish compromise and reward performance.
  5. Foreign policy is a major test case: Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are used to illustrate the tension between populist skepticism of wars and the need for consistent constitutional process.
  6. The post-9/11 generation is treated as important but unfinished; the speaker argues Americans still need to build institutions that reward service and courage.
  7. The episode is also a transition piece: Avlon announces the end of his current run on The Bulwark feed while signaling that his project will continue elsewhere.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the actionable setup is institutional friction: expect more headlines around unilateral foreign policy moves, congressional pushback, and partisan signaling rather than a clean policy consensus. Tactical risk rises if executive actions in Iran or elsewhere escalate faster than Congress can respond.

  • Immediate setup: this is a farewell episode for Avlon, and he says a new partner announcement is coming in the next few weeks.
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  • The current tactical debate is around whether Congress will reassert itself on Iran and other unilateral executive actions; Barcott says that pressure is beginning to build.
  • The Ukraine issue remains a near-term litmus test for Republicans like Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick who are resisting the party’s new posture.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the base case is continued polarization unless a small bipartisan service-oriented bloc can keep proving that cross-party governance is still possible. Validation would come from durable cooperation on Ukraine, national service, or war-powers constraints; invalidation would be further collapse into pure tribal positioning.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, the key question is whether service-minded Republicans and Democrats can keep forming a durable governing bloc inside a polarized Congress.
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  • If national service and civic education gain traction, Barcott sees them as a bipartisan way to rebuild trust and widen the pool of young people exposed to public service.
  • The Ukraine debate may evolve toward a clearer split between hardline populists and a smaller group of internationalist Republicans if battlefield conditions or Russian advances change.
Long term

The long-run thesis is structural: America either rebuilds a culture of service that rewards courage and shared civic identity, or it continues drifting into a regime where partisanship and executive unilateralism dominate. The deeper implication is that democratic health depends as much on social norms of service as on formal institutions.

  • Structurally, the episode argues that American civic decay is rooted in a weak service culture and a political system that systematically rewards tribalism over statesmanship.
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  • The durable thesis is that rebuilding shared service experiences could matter as much as policy reform in restoring democratic legitimacy.
  • The long-run regime question is whether Congress regains war powers and bipartisan trust, or whether executive unilateralism becomes the default norm.
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Key claims (4)

BULLISH national service / civic engagement

Expanding voluntary national service (like AmeriCorps) could be a bipartisan solution to the crisis of purpose and technology displacement facing young Americans.

The speaker argues national service is an '80/20 issue' with broad bipartisan support, is inexpensive (~$1B vs $1T defense budget), builds skills, and becomes more relevant as AI disrupts the job market.

BEARISH geopolitics / US foreign policy

The Republican Party has reversed its position on standing up to Russian aggression, abandoning the Reagan Republican stance on America's role in the world.

The speaker references Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick as exceptions, noting most Republicans privately acknowledge the Russian threat but lack public courage due to rising populism.

BULLISH Russia-Ukraine war

Ukraine has gained a technological advantage over Russia in the last six months that is neutralizing Russia's numerical military advantage.

The speaker cites Ukrainian battlefield developments as 'absolutely remarkable', suggesting drone/tech superiority is offsetting Russia's larger force.

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Assets discussed (7)

With Honor
BULLISH other

Presented as the organization Barcott co-founded to support veteran candidates and reduce polarization through service-minded politics.

AmeriCorps
BULLISH other

Cited as an example of national service that develops skills and provides a pathway for young people.

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Speakers

HOST John Avlon GUEST Rye Barcott

Interview (13 Q&A)

book timing

Why did you decide to write this book now?

He says he co-founded With Honor about eight years ago to help address polarization, especially in Congress, by supporting veterans and service-minded candidates. He also wanted to document this moment for younger Americans and highlight people he sees as showing real courage in public life.

courage

What connects the people you chose to profile?

He says the unifying thread is courage: moral courage, a willingness to risk reputation or integrity to stand for something unpopular and take the consequences. He argues that service is the deeper basis for that courage and for the sense of national cohesion it can create.

in office

How does the fact that these members are still in office affect the book?

He explains that writing about sitting elected officials gives the book a live view into the current moment, but it also makes accuracy more difficult because he has to portray people who are still actively serving. He says he tries to focus on the moments when they stepped up rather than on their imperfections.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that national service is an 80/20 bipartisan issue may be overstated; the transcript offers enthusiasm and examples, but not hard evidence that it can survive congressional politics.
  • Barcott’s faith that service and civic education can materially reverse polarization is persuasive but under-evidenced; the causal path from JROTC or AmeriCorps to less partisan politics is not demonstrated.
  • The discussion of foreign policy critiques executive action, but the transcript does not fully grapple with cases where speed or secrecy might be necessary, so the constitutional argument is one-sided.
  • Some examples blur courage with good politics rather than pure courage; the distinction is argued well conceptually but not always cleanly in practice.
  • The episode asserts that certain members are bipartisan or courage-driven, but it does not test whether their positions are principled across the full policy range or only on the showcased issues.

Topics

couragebipartisanshipnational serviceCongresspolarizationveteransUkraineIranVenezuelapost-9/11 generation

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