Ben Cowen says Bitcoin’s bottom is probably not in yet. He frames the usual cycle pattern as a summer low, a late-summer bounce, and then a final drop in Q4 that marks the cycle bottom.
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This short clip is a focused Bitcoin timing discussion built around one question: when does the bleeding stop and where might the bottom be? The interviewer asks whether Bitcoin is headed toward something like 38,000 or about to reverse, and Cowen answers by leaning on a recurring cycle template rather than on a fresh catalyst or on-chain signal. His base case is that Bitcoin tends to find a low in the summer, rally into late summer, and then make a final decline in the fourth quarter that ultimately sets the bottom. Cowen’s core thesis is therefore cautious and cycle-based: the bottom is more likely in Q4 than immediately. He explicitly says, “my best guess would be the fourth quarter of the year,” and reinforces the point by saying that “every cycle has played out so far for Bitcoin” with tops near the end of the cycle and bottoms later in the year. …
Tactically, this argues against treating Bitcoin’s current weakness as finished; the risk is that any bounce is just a pause before another leg lower.
Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is a summer recovery attempt followed by weakness into Q4, which is when Cowen expects the bottom to form. That view holds unless Bitcoin breaks the usual seasonal/cycle pattern.
Structurally, Cowen is still treating Bitcoin as a market where multi-quarter cycles matter, so the lasting question is whether that rhythm remains a reliable regime or eventually breaks down.
Bitcoin will find its cycle bottom in the fourth quarter of the year.
The speaker observes a historical pattern where Bitcoin finds a low in summer, bounces, then has a final drop into Q4 which marks the bottom.
When will Bitcoin bottom out? Is the bleeding ending soon, or will we go much lower — potentially to 38,000?
Bitcoin typically finds a low in the summer, bounces later in the summer, then has a final drop in Q4 which marks the bottom. The guest's best guess is Q4 of this year.
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