Drew Dosek argues that the market’s late-day rebound — led by SMH and Micron — may have postponed a potential semiconductor trend break, but the next real test is still tomorrow’s core PCE print. He treats the semis as the lead indicator for SPY and QQQ, while also walking through a broad technical read on yields, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, Bitcoin, and several semiconductor names.
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Drew Dosek opens by saying the market was under pressure for most of the session, then ripped in the final minutes as SMH surged and Micron (MU) pushed higher after hours. His core view is that this late move “kicked the can into tomorrow”: the potential confirmation of a breakdown in SMH was avoided for now, but the decisive test is still the next session because core PCE is due at 8:30 a.m. He frames the setup as one where investors may have trimmed into two event risks — PCE and Micron earnings — and says the recent return of inflation pressure has increased talk of rate hikes as early as September. He then works through the major index charts. SPY closed only slightly lower, but after hours moved higher; he says a push above $740 would clear the immediate area, while remaining under the rising trend line would leave room for more consolidation and possibly a test of about $729. …
Near term, the tape looks tactically bullish only if the late-semester semis strength persists into the PCE release; otherwise the move risks becoming a false breakdown recovery. SMH and MU are the key tells, and a weak PCE or lower open could quickly reintroduce downside pressure.
Over the next several weeks, the base case is a choppy, event-driven market where semis decide whether the AI-led rally can continue or whether the recent advance was just a pause inside a broader correction. Confirmation comes from how SMH behaves around its recent low and whether inflation data keeps pushing rate-hike expectations forward.
Structurally, he frames semiconductors as the market’s regime leader: if they lose trend, the broader equity tape is vulnerable. More broadly, he sees a persistent setup where rising yields and a stronger dollar pressure metals and risk assets until a clear trend reversal shows up in price.
The failing move pattern on the 10-year yield, where an anticipated breakout higher reversed, typically generates some of the biggest moves in the opposite direction.
Speaker observes the 10-year yield rejected after being expected to move higher, and interprets this failed move as a signal for a strong move lower.
Bitcoin's weekly head and shoulders pattern is still valid and will likely pull price down to a sub-$40,000 target at $37,508.
Speaker references the weekly time frame head and shoulders pattern and its measured target.
Rate hikes are looking like they're going to come as early as September.
Speaker references inflation data picking up and rate hikes surfacing amongst the FOMC as the basis for this expectation.
Can you look at Uber on the weekly chart and assess whether a head-and-shoulders pattern is developing?
He says the weekly chart does resemble a possible head-and-shoulders, but the right shoulder is not clean or symmetrical enough to confirm a breakdown yet. He identifies the neckline around $70.87/$70.75 as the key level to watch.
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