Drew Dosek recaps a session where markets bounced on Micron earnings and a hot-but-in-line core PCE print that reinforced Fed hike expectations. He walks through charts on S&P 500, Nasdaq, SMH, yields, gold, silver, oil, nat gas, Bitcoin, and several individual stocks, leaning on trend lines and parallels. The core tension: tech stays elevated despite rising rate odds — a divergence he finds peculiar but not yet resolved. He flags near-term resistance and support levels across assets, notes Bitcoin RSI divergence suggesting a near-term bottom attempt, and promotes his educational courses (40% off through July 12).
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Drew Dosek opens "Trading the Close" by framing the day around two stories: Micron earnings buoyed markets, while core PCE data came in high but within the range of expectations, so it didn't trigger heavy selling. The PCE print, he argues, essentially solidifies the Fed hiking rates — odds of a July hike increased, and a September hike is "almost guaranteed." He notes he'll be watching the upcoming labor report at the beginning of next month for the next signal. He then moves into chart-by-chart analysis. On the S&P 500, the index closed up 0.14% but put in another red candle (opened higher, closed lower within the candle). Intraday was violent: a gap up, three candles straight down, a "monstrous bounce," then sideways drift. After hours were already pushing back up. …
Cautious but mixed: tech is resilient and after-hours are pushing up, but the SMH is flirting with a trend-line breakdown that hasn't confirmed yet. The failed yield breakout and Bitcoin RSI divergence lean mildly risk-supportive near-term, but key levels (SMH $617.27, Bitcoin June 5th low) are the decisive triggers. No strong directional edge until those resolve.
Unresolved tension between Fed tightening trajectory and tech momentum — Dosek expects this to sort out over weeks. If SMH holds its trend line, the AI buildout thesis stays intact and a healthy pullback could reload the rally. If it breaks, the rate-hike reality may finally catch up to growth/tech valuations. The labor data at the start of next month is the next catalyst.
Structurally bullish on the AI/data-center semiconductor cycle — Dosek frames this as a durable, self-reinforcing investment cycle with circular flows (Nvidia investing in suppliers). The long-term risk is that broad head-and-shoulders patterns across multiple assets trigger simultaneously, which would signal a regime change from AI-led expansion to a deeper corrective phase that could drag all risk assets.
Higher rates are not really good for growth companies, so the fact that tech stays elevated despite higher rates is peculiar.
The speaker notes tech/growth stocks remain elevated despite rising rates, which he views as contradictory to conventional understanding that growth companies are hurt by higher rates.
If SMH gets a daily close under $617.27 while still under the inclining trend line, downside probabilities will increase.
The speaker identifies the June 23rd low at $617.27 as a key level; a close below it while still under the trend line would signal increased downside risk.
Bitcoin is trying to put in at least a near-term bottom based on RSI divergence.
The speaker points to RSI divergence — price at the same level as a prior low but RSI above 30 versus 15 previously — as a signal of a potential near-term bottom in Bitcoin.
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