Gareth Soloway argues the NASDAQ is nearing a major resistance zone around 25,000, with chart parallels, M2-adjusted valuation, and dot-com-era comparisons all suggesting a possible top. He also warns that semis may be starting to crack, while he remains constructive on the very long-term outlook for precious metals despite expecting near-term downside first.
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Gareth Soloway opens by framing the tape as mixed, with S&P futures fading into the open and oil modestly higher. He says markets are currently shrugging off geopolitical tensions, including instability around the Strait of Hormuz, because U.S. earnings and economic resilience are still supporting risk assets. His central focus is the NASDAQ, which he says is approaching a key upper parallel near 25,000. He emphasizes the similarity to the dot-com era, where the index pierced 5,000 before topping, and says the current chart is “spooky” because of the similarity 25 years later. He reinforces that bearish caution by dividing the NASDAQ by M2 money supply and arguing that the index has now pierced its dot-com-era high on that basis as well. He presents this as a warning sign, though he does not call a guaranteed top. …
The immediate setup is tactically crowded and fragile near a major NASDAQ resistance zone, with the semis needing to prove they can keep leading. A fast rejection at 25,000 or continued weakness in AI chips would make this a higher-risk chase.
Over the next few weeks, the base case is either a breakout through 25,000 that confirms momentum is still intact, or a failure there that triggers a broader de-risking led by the semis. The key confirmation is whether earnings season and rate expectations can keep supporting price after leadership starts to wobble.
Structurally, he is arguing that the market may be revisiting dot-com-style excess, with liquidity and narrative inflation pushing valuation beyond durable fundamentals. If that regime view is right, the longer-term implication is a harsher re-rating once momentum breaks, even if the advance extends a bit further first.
Markets are currently shrugging off geopolitical risk because U.S. earnings and the economy are still holding up.
He says the market ignores the Strait of Hormuz situation as long as earnings are good and the U.S. economy is hanging in there.
The NASDAQ is approaching a major technical resistance near 25,000.
He repeatedly says the index is at an upper parallel and likely to touch 25,000 soon.
The current NASDAQ setup resembles the dot-com era and could be signaling a major top.
He says the chart is eerie and compares the current 25,000 zone to the dot-com peak around 5,000.
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