Gareth Soloway argues the Fed’s hawkish messaging, hot inflation data, and a crowded risk-on setup are triggering a broad unwind across equities, metals, and crypto. He is especially bearish near term on gold, silver, and the S&P 500, while viewing the selloff as tradable volatility rather than a change to his long-term metal thesis.
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This is a fast-moving daily trading update centered on a broad market selloff after Jerome Powell’s press conference and hot PPI data. Gareth Soloway says Powell signaled no rate cuts this year, inflation remains sticky, and that combination makes the market vulnerable. He frames the move as a technical unwind: the S&P 500 is breaking down from a rounded-top / distribution structure, metals have rolled over from an overcrowded bullish consensus, Micron’s strong earnings were already priced in and are now a sell-the-news event, and Bitcoin is weakening but still needs to be watched around the 70,000 level. A major focus is the metals collapse. Soloway says silver is down over 10% intraday and gold is down more than 5%, with GDX also breaking down. …
Immediate tape is risk-off: if metals keep breaking and the S&P loses nearby support, the path of least resistance looks lower. The only clean tactical relief valve he identifies is a geopolitical de-escalation that knocks oil down hard enough to spark a short-covering bounce.
Over the next few weeks, he expects the unwind to persist unless inflation and oil pressures cool enough to restore confidence in rate cuts. Confirmation matters: if silver, gold, and key equity supports keep failing on closes, the market likely stays in a lower-volatility-downtrend phase rather than finding a durable bid.
His structural view is that fiat debasement ultimately wins out, keeping gold and silver higher over time even if they suffer major cyclical washouts. The lasting regime implication is that crowded consensus trades can reverse violently, and technical structure may be more reliable than narrative when positioning gets extreme.
Powell's press conference reinforced a hawkish Fed stance and made rate cuts unlikely this year.
Soloway says Powell said he has no clue where inflation is going, the labor market concerns the Fed, and there are no interest rates cuts the rest of the year.
The S&P 500 is forming a rounded top / distribution pattern and is vulnerable to further downside.
He says he warned this year that the market would fool analysts and describes a rounded top as distribution with institutions dumping into retail.
Silver is in a severe intraday breakdown and may head toward 50-54 if it closes below the 70-71 area and confirms tomorrow.
He states silver is down 12% and gives explicit confirmation and target levels.
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