Gareth Soloway argues the market is flushing on hot PPI, rising oil, and pre-Fed uncertainty, with his charts pointing to further downside in the S&P, Nasdaq, gold, and silver. He sees Micron earnings as likely strong but already priced in, and he treats the oil/natural-gas spike tied to Iran headlines as an inflationary risk rather than a buy signal.
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Gareth Soloway opens by framing the day as a major macro event: hot producer-price inflation, a Federal Reserve decision and Powell press conference, and geopolitics pushing energy higher. He says the PPI print of +0.7% reinforces his long-running stagflation view, because inflation is reaccelerating while the economy is slowing. He also points to reports from Iranian state TV about a natural-gas field being hit, arguing that escalation in the region could keep oil bid and worsen inflation. On equities, he says the S&P 500 remains in a bearish zone below his pivot line, with a downside roadmap toward 6,550 first, then 6,125, and ultimately the lower end of his larger channel around 5,550-5,600. He says the Nasdaq has a similar structure, and if the pivot breaks, he expects a larger move lower before any durable bottom can form. …
Immediate setup is risk-off: hot PPI, higher oil, and pre-Fed uncertainty are pressuring equities, while he thinks key index pivots are at risk of breaking. The most actionable near-term risk is that any bounce is treated as tactical unless the market reclaims those levels.
Over the next several weeks, he expects inflation pressure and energy volatility to keep the market choppy with a downside tilt, unless oil falls sharply and the Fed messaging turns less restrictive. A sustained recovery would require price to reclaim broken pivots and for the inflation narrative to cool.
His structural view is that stagflation remains the dominant regime risk: inflation can stay sticky while growth slows, keeping pressure on rates, equities, and multiple-expansion trades. He also sees commodity booms as self-limiting over time because supply eventually responds.
The latest PPI print of 0.7% signals inflation is reaccelerating and supports a stagflation narrative.
He directly ties the hot PPI to inflation returning and says it matches his stagflation view.
The S&P 500 remains bearish while it stays below the pivot line and could fall toward 6,550, then 6,125, and eventually the lower channel area.
He lays out a stepped downside roadmap from the current pivot break structure.
The Nasdaq is structurally similar to the S&P and may need to break its pivot before moving toward a deeper decline.
He says the same channel logic applies and a break would open the way to a larger move lower.
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