Stephanie Pomboy

Things To Fall Apart After The Mid-Terms? | Stephanie Pomboy

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the market is still being held up by a narrow AI/semis trade and by expectations of easier policy, but she thinks the bigger risk is rising rates, credit stress, and a post-midterm deterioration in consumers and private credit. She remains constructive on energy, gold, and other hard assets, and sees the current pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than thesis breaks.

The Real Reason Gold Has Massive Upside and Inflation Isn’t Going Away | Stephanie Pomboy

Preview:Craig Hemke and Stephanie Pomboy argue that the Fed’s real constraint is the balance sheet, not the policy rate, because the government’s financing needs and global bond-market stress make rate cuts alone ineffective. Pomboy’s core view is that deglobalization, higher energy costs, and declining foreign appetite for Treasuries point to persistently higher inflation and structurally stronger demand for hard assets like gold and silver.

Stephanie Pomboy: Just How Screwed Are We?

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argued the biggest near-term market shift is that rates are no longer expected to fall, which pressures weak credits, private credit, and highly levered borrowers while keeping long yields elevated. She tied that to oil, the Iran conflict, fiscal deficits, and the possibility that Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent may try to manage rates and the balance sheet in a more rules-based way than the current Fed.

Stephanie Pomboy: Iran War Creating A Global Scramble For Hard Assets?

Preview:Adam Taggart interviews Stephanie Pomboy about how the Iran war, oil spikes, fiscal deficits, private credit stress, and deglobalization are shaping the hard-asset, rates, and credit outlook. Pomboy argues the war reinforces long-running currency debasement and deficit growth, while near-term market optimism may be overlooking credit fragility and higher-for-longer borrowing costs.

The Private Credit Squeeze That Could Trap Retail Investors | Stephanie Pomboy

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues that the market is underpricing the second-order effects of higher oil, tighter liquidity, and private-credit stress. She sees policy turning increasingly accommodative to protect affordability and, ultimately, expects that dynamic to be bullish for gold.

Stephanie Pomboy: Did Things Just Get A Whole Lot Worse?

Preview:Adam Taggart hosts Stephanie Pomboy in a macro discussion centered on the Iran war shock, oil volatility, private credit stress, and whether recent headlines meaningfully worsen the macro picture. Pomboy argues the answer is mostly no: the war and oil spike amplify pre-existing vulnerabilities—higher commodity prices, higher bond yields, heavy refinancing needs, and rising credit fragility—but do not change her broader 2026 thesis. She sees the main risk as a feedback loop where elevated oil keeps yields high, credit spreads widen, and financial assets roll over into a deeper recession.

Stephanie Pomboy: Expect GDP To Run Hot...Until Inflation Spikes Or The Markets Plunge

Preview:A short in-person Thoughtful Money discussion from Adam Taggart and Stephanie Pomboy focused on conference takeaways rather than a full interview. The main macro message was that policy is set up to run the economy hot into the midterms via fiscal stimulus, tax refunds, deregulation, and likely Fed accommodation, which could support GDP in the near term but also raise inflation, yields, and market-stability risks. They also highlighted a few off-the-beaten-path ideas from the conference, including a possible cooling-cycle framework, Poland’s unexpectedly strong growth, and debate over Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chair.

Stephanie Pomboy: Market Confusion -- Are Things Getting Better...Or Worse??

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the macro picture is still mixed rather than decisively improving or deteriorating. She sees a noisy jobs report, weak retail spending, rising consumer stress, ongoing credit stress, and a policy environment that is likely to be kept artificially supportive through at least October, with easier rates, tax refunds, and other executive actions aimed at avoiding visible economic pain before the election.

Stephanie Pomboy: Get Ready For A Wild Ride In 2026

Preview:Adam Taggart interviews Stephanie Pomboy about the 2026 macro setup, with the main thrust being that precious metals have moved much faster than expected because of dollar weakness, fiscal excess, reserve weaponization, and a broad shift toward hard assets. Pomboy also argues the administration is trying to run the economy hot into the midterms, which may keep inflation pressures alive even as housing and oil could partially offset them.

Stephanie Pomboy: Unemployment Rate To Spike In 2026?

Preview:Adam Taggart interviews Stephanie Pomboy about a crowded capital market, weakening labor data, and the likelihood that today’s debt and asset-price setup becomes more unstable into 2026. Pomboy argues AI capex, Treasury rollover needs, corporate refi walls, and private credit all compete for limited financing, while the Fed’s return to balance-sheet expansion suggests stress in the plumbing. She also says unemployment, bankruptcy filings, and weak consumer conditions point to a softer economy than Wall Street is pricing, even as gold, silver, and commodities remain her preferred long-term hedge against debasement.

Stephanie Pomboy: Is This The Breaking Point?

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the market and economy are moving into a more fragile phase: rising Japanese yields, the unwind of the yen carry trade, U.S. fiscal dominance, weakening consumer conditions, and growing stress in AI/private credit all point to higher risk premia and less support from easy money. She thinks a pullback in risk assets could hit wealth-sensitive consumption and expose how dependent the system has become on continued stimulus and the AI narrative.

The End of 'Paper' Wealth? Why Pomboy Says Sell Tech & Buy Energy Now

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the economy is being distorted by data gaps, easy financial engineering, and a widening divide between asset owners and stressed households. She is broadly bullish hard assets, especially gold, and says investors who want exposure to AI without owning expensive tech can use energy stocks as a cheaper, levered way to bet on the power demand behind AI.

Stephanie Pomboy: Worrisome Cracks Are Starting To Show In The Credit Market (Finally!)

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues that credit stress is finally starting to surface, but the market is still pricing as if nothing is wrong. She ties the emerging problems to a record level of corporate bankruptcies, rising delinquencies, and a funding system that is being forced to absorb enormous Treasury issuance without meaningful relief to long rates.

Stephanie Pomboy: When The Next Shakeout Happens, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser?

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues that gold’s recent surge is likely an early-stage move in a much longer hard-asset cycle, not the end of it, while warning that a pullback in gold could come alongside a broader de-risking across assets. She also thinks credit stress is starting to show up at the weak end of the market and could eventually bleed into broader corporate credit, equities, and even Treasuries if higher-for-longer yields collide with massive debt maturities and fiscal dominance.

Stephanie Pomboy: The Way We Invest Is Coming To An End

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues that the long-standing U.S. investment framework built on disinflation, cheap capital, globalization, and suppressed business cycles is ending. Her near-term focus is the weakening labor market and the likelihood that markets are underpricing how much the Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions and other soft data weaken the case for current valuations.

Stephanie Pomboy: The Cracks In The Economy Are Becoming Too Large To Ignore

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the market is still mispricing a weakening economy: the Fed is likely to cut, but long-end Treasury yields, credit spreads, and mortgage rates may not fall the way investors expect because fiscal dominance, heavy debt/refinancing needs, and structural credit stress keep pressure on the system. She sees recession risk, housing deterioration, and credit stress as the real issues, while continuing to favor gold and, selectively, miners as a hedge against dollar debasement and policy disappointment.

The ‘One Data Point No One Can Fudge’ Signals a Crisis is Here | Stephanie Pomboy

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues that Powell’s Jackson Hole pivot reflects a weakening economy, but she doubts rate cuts will solve the core problem because borrowing costs, fiscal stress, and weak consumers are the real constraints. She remains bullish on gold, miners, and energy, and skeptical that the stock rally can keep compounding in real terms.

Stephanie Pomboy: The Next Fed Cut To Mark The Peak In Stocks?

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the market is setting up for a late-2025 peak around the next Fed cut, even as the headline data still looks benign. Her bigger concern is not just inflation, but a fragile credit/debt backdrop, negative corporate tax receipts, worsening consumer stress, and a fiscal/monetary system increasingly held together by ad hoc measures like T-bill financing, tariff revenue, and stablecoin demand.

Stephanie Pomboy: Melt-Up Or Blow-Off Top?

Preview:Adam Taggart interviews Stephanie Pomboy about whether the current market is a melt-up or a blow-off top. Pomboy argues markets are levitating on hopes for lower rates and pro-growth policy, but the real constraint is debt service and persistently high long-term rates. She is bullish on gold, silver, miners, and other hard assets because of dollar debasement and likely future Fed balance-sheet expansion, while staying skeptical that rate cuts alone solve the economy’s financing problem.

Stephanie Pomboy: Economy Is A 'Slow-Motion Train Wreck' In Process

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the U.S. consumer is weakening beneath still-decent headline data, and that student loan repayments, rising delinquencies, high rates, and a fading affluent consumer could slowly tip the economy into recession. She thinks the bond market—not the Fed—remains the key constraint, and that fiscal policy plus eventual Fed balance-sheet support may be required, with hard assets like gold benefiting over time.

Stephanie Pomboy: Bombs, Bullion & Big Trouble With Student Loans

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the market’s resilience after the U.S. strike on Iran reflects risk-on positioning and a calmer oil backdrop more than any true peace dividend. Her bigger focus is domestic weakness: tariffs, student-loan re-defaults, rising unemployment claims, and a softening housing market are all feeding a disinflationary slowdown that she thinks makes Fed cuts more justified than Powell admits.

Stephanie Pomboy: Will Student Loan Defaults Trigger The Next Credit Crisis?

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy and Adam Taggart discuss the resumption of student loan repayments as a potential trigger for a broader consumer credit crisis. Pomboy frames it as a compounding problem on top of already-stressed corporate credit (the $1T+ maturity wall), vulnerable bank balance sheets (unrealized losses, commercial real estate), and the 10-year yield's refusal to decline. She is most alarmed that lenders are operating under "false pretenses" about borrower quality—credit scores are inflated, leverage ratios are understated, and private equity marks are 40% too high. The conversation widens to the macro backdrop: fiscal deterioration makes bond yield relief unlikely even in a recession; gold and miners are the obvious beneficiaries; and we may be in a once-in-a-century transition where old certainties don't hold.

Stephanie Pomboy: We're Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues that despite the recent trade-deal optimism and market rally, the US economy is "not out of the woods." The central risk she identifies is stubbornly high interest rates (~4.5% on the 10Y) amid massive debt rollover needs ($8T in 2025 alone). She warns that private credit stress, consumer delinquency deterioration, and a looming corporate margin squeeze from reshoring will create a bumpy near-term path — even if the Trump administration's long-term economic reset ultimately succeeds. She remains heavy in T-bills and gold, opportunistically adding to gold miners on dips.

U.S. Consumer Is Breaking Down – Markets Just Don’t See It Yet | Stephanie Pomboy

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the market is misreading the tariff-driven rally and ignoring a bigger problem: stubbornly high long-term rates, rising debt-service costs, weak consumer demand, and a looming financing problem for U.S. deficits. She says the 90-day U.S.-China pause is mostly a headline catalyst, while the real issue is whether the Treasury, banks, or the Fed will absorb the supply of government debt.

SPECIAL REPORT: America's Looming Pension Crisis - It's Worse Than You Imagine | Stephanie Pomboy

Preview:A detailed discussion of America’s pension crisis focused on public pensions: their weak governance, heavy use of expensive and opaque alternatives, chronic underfunding, and the likelihood that losses will eventually be socialized through bailouts. Stephanie Pomboy and host Adam Taggart interview pension investigator Ted Siedle, who argues the problem is less about benefit promises alone than about years of mismanagement, hidden fees, leverage, and valuation games inside state and local pension portfolios.

Stephanie Pomboy: Tariffs Aren't The Only Big Challenge We Have To Worry About

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy and host Adam Taggart discuss the aftermath of "Liberation Day" tariffs, framing them as a negotiating tactic aimed primarily at China and part of a broader secular shift away from globalization. Pomboy argues the critical metric to watch is the Treasury market — backup in long-end yields threatens the entire system given massive debt rollover needs ($8T by year-end) and the unwinding of the leveraged basis trade. She sees recession as essentially already here, credit spreads widening dangerously, and expects the Fed to eventually resume QE. Despite near-term pain, she views the long-term reset as potentially bullish for US manufacturing and ultimately for buying great American companies at bargain valuations.

Stephanie Pomboy: Stock Rally To Continue In Near-Term?

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the recent stock market bounce is technically driven and fundamentally unsupported. She sees mounting recession signals (Atlanta Fed GDP now at -2%, consumer spending near zero), widening credit spreads, unrealistic earnings estimates, and a looming corporate debt wall. She expects the Fed to eventually resume some form of QE under a different name. On the upside, she acknowledges peace deals and US investment pledges could help long-term but won't rescue the near-term setup. Her core view: the stock market is the tail wagging the economic dog, and a mean-reverting correction would trigger a recession via the wealth effect.

Stephanie Pomboy: It's Just Dumb To Dismiss Recession Risks At This Point

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues that dismissing recession risks is "dumb" given deteriorating data: terrible retail sales (one-third of expectations), collapsing consumer sentiment (employment outlook worst since Great Recession), and unit retail sales flat for 4+ years. She notes the seasonal-adjustment bar was already low in January, yet the economy still "face-planted." The wildcard: how much pain the Trump administration and Congress will tolerate before intervening. On gold, she sees the move to $3,000 as just the beginning — it occurred without Western investor participation, which is only now starting. She frames this as the early stage of a long reversal where hard assets outperform paper.

Stephanie Pomboy: Stagflation Suddenly Seems More Certain

Preview:Stephanie Pomboy argues the U.S. is moving deeper into a stagflationary slowdown: growth is weakening, inflation is sticky, and that combination limits the Fed’s ability to cushion markets. She sees the setup as broadly bearish for risky assets near term, while still favoring gold, gold miners, T-bills, and selectively commodities over U.S. equities.

Stephanie Pomboy: What Impact Will Trump's New Massive Tariffs On Canada, Mexico & China Have?

Stephanie Pomboy: Don't Let The Latest Inflation Data Fool You, It's Still A Threat

Stephanie Pomboy: Get Ready For A Much Bumpier Ride In 2025