turning geopolitical and policy shocks into tradable macro setups
Preview how this speaker shows up across market transcripts. Unlock the full archive, AI chat, and the version personalized to your watchlist, followed channels, and favorite speakers.
Andreas Steno Larsen appears as a macro-market commentator focused on turning fast-moving geopolitical and policy developments into tradable market implications. In the supplied material, he discusses oil flows, Strait of Hormuz risks, jet fuel shortages, European airfares and tourism, inflation, yields, FX, and crypto. He also frames his output as highly actionable and chart-driven, and his X feed suggests a habit of challenging consensus readings of market data and calling out what he sees as simplistic takes. The evidence base here is centered on his recurring public-market commentary rather than a deep biographical profile, so there is some uncertainty around the full scope of his work.
His recurring economic worldview is broadly macro-pragmatic and data-first: markets are best understood through cross-asset signals, real-world flows, and policy/geopolitical constraints rather than narratives alone. He seems to think in terms of supply shocks, liquidity, inflation paths, and relative market positioning, and he repeatedly emphasizes how geopolitical events transmit into energy, transport, Europe-specific activity, and broader risk assets. The tone suggests a trader’s lens: identify what the market is mispricing, watch the charts and flow data, and translate headlines into actionable setups. He also appears comfortable with contrarian readings when he thinks the crowd is overreacting or missing a basic structural fact.
Every analyzed appearance we have for this speaker, newest first. Open any transcript preview to read the underlying transcript.
Preview:This is a Macro Mondays discussion focused on two linked themes: the Iran/Hormuz oil shock and the ongoing AI/memory semiconductor trade. Andreas Steno argues the oil disruption is real but still manageable for now, while the bigger market setup remains the inflation print and whether it confirms a softer disinflation path that would ease pressure on rates and the dollar. He is also still bullish on memory and semis, saying the underlying price action and order books do not yet show a peak.
Preview:Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold discuss inflation rolling over globally, with Eurozone June CPI surprising to the downside and US CPI expected to follow. They argue central banks (ECB, Fed) are behind the curve but may pivot after summer. On oil, they see the Strait of Hormuz risk premium structurally fading while China's buying strike keeps a floor under prices — positioning has flipped heavily short, signaling a potential long entry soon. On the AI/memory trade, South Korean HBM exports surged 32% month-over-month in June, and they expect Samsung earnings to blow past expectations again. Heinix's upcoming US dollar listing is seen as a short-term bullish signal.
Preview:Andreas Steno and host Mikkel Rosenvold discuss the US dollar's recent surge to multi-decade highs vs the yen, arguing that the Fed under Kevin Warsh has pivoted hawkishly despite falling inflation data — a disconnect they call a "forecasting mistake." They cover the Strait of Hormuz situation (manageable as long as ships still transit), upcoming jobs data (Steno expects sub-100K, below consensus), and the AI/memory chip trade where underlying fundamentals remain strong despite volatility. Steno warns that crowded dollar-long positioning could reverse into vacation season. Core thesis: the Fed is fighting the last war on inflation, and real rates have risen against a softening inflation picture, but patience is needed before the data forces a dovish reversal.
Preview:Andreas Steno argues the Iran-US deal is effectively done and removes a major near-term oil risk, because sanctions relief and improved Strait of Hormuz access should keep global crude in surplus and pressure prices lower. He extends that bearish oil/inflation view into a broader risk-on market call, saying central banks are behind the curve, IPO appetite is strong, and semis/hardware still look supported by liquidity and AI capex.
Preview:This Macro Mondays episode argues that Friday’s selloff was a violent but still largely tactical reset, not the start of a full bear market. Andreas Steno says the strong payrolls report and upward revisions punctured the “weak labor market” narrative, boxed the Fed into a less dovish June stance, and triggered mechanical de-risking from momentum and volatility-targeting players. He also says the medium-term AI/data-center trade still looks intact as long as token prices keep rising, while the Middle East remains a live but not yet market-breaking geopolitical risk.
Preview:This Macro Mondays episode argues that the June macro backdrop is still constructive: US manufacturing data are stronger than expected, liquidity conditions remain supportive, and the recent Iran/Red Sea shocks have so far had a surprisingly limited effect on equities. The hosts frame the main tactical opportunity as continued momentum in software/security software, server and AI hardware names, and possibly drones if confirmation news arrives; Bitcoin and some robotics ideas are treated as underperformers or too early for the current cycle.
Preview:This Real Vision Macro Mondays episode centers on the possibility of a US-Iran deal that would reduce tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, ease oil-driven inflation, and shape the next move in rate expectations and equity sector leadership. The speakers think the market is reacting to hopeful headlines more than hard confirmation, but they also argue that if the route stays open or a deal progresses, inflation pressure should peak sooner and risk assets tied to discretionary spending, luxury, and hardware could benefit.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays discusses how rising long bond yields, hot inflation prints, Iran-related oil risk, and the Trump/Xi summit are interacting with risk assets. Andreas Steno argues the old bond-yield playbook may be breaking down, while near-term market direction still hinges heavily on whether Iran oil tensions ease enough to cool inflation and support equities, especially semiconductors.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays frames the current macro setup as a 2020/2021-style liquidity and reflation regime, not a COVID story. Andreas and Miguel argue that easier bank balance-sheet rules, strong labor data, and delayed Fed response are combining with an energy shock to support inflation, a weaker policy backdrop, and a risk-on rally. They also see the Trump–Xi meeting and possible Ukraine progress as potential market-friendly de-risking events, while highlighting selective themes like rare earths, solar, metals, and consumer-scarcity beneficiaries such as Apple.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on three linked macro themes: the Iran/Hormuz shipping situation, the inflation and credit-cycle implications of an energy shock, and whether the recent AI capex surge is a bubble. The hosts argued that markets are still treating the Iran risk with some apathy, the short-run impact on Western supply is likely limited, and the AI buildout still looks supported by accelerating hyperscaler capex and backlogs rather than classic bubble dynamics.
Preview:A Real Vision Macro Mondays episode with host Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno argues that the Iran/oil shock is less market-relevant than headlines suggest, while the broader rally remains under-owned and could keep grinding higher. They emphasize weak advisor sentiment, low leverage, strong semiconductor demand, and a likely next trade in power and grid infrastructure.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on the Iran/Hormuz crisis, European jet-fuel scarcity, and why markets kept rallying despite the geopolitical noise. The speakers argued the energy shock is manageable, liquidity and positioning are still supportive, and central banks are unlikely to react aggressively unless the situation worsens materially.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation, arguing the market impact is real but likely temporary, alongside a CPI read showing energy-driven inflation pressure without broad-based overheating. The hosts also discussed how the shock favors hardware over software equities and briefly touched on Hungary’s election outcome as a generally positive but mostly priced-in event.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays frames the week around a Middle East escalation risk that the hosts think is increasingly being de-risked by bilateral oil-routing deals and continued flow adjustments. Their core market view is that the immediate oil shock is real but probably manageable, with the U.S. relatively insulated and Europe/Asia more exposed.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays centers on the Iran war’s market impact, arguing that negotiations may still avert a larger escalation, but time is running out and markets are underprepared. The hosts lean toward energy as the main hedge, while noting crypto resilience, a stronger dollar, lower rates, and risk assets that look complacent or frozen.
Preview:A Real Vision drinks-style macro discussion centered on the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and the knock-on risks to energy, fertilizers, helium, semiconductors, and growth. The speakers think a deal is still possible but are increasingly focused on supply-chain disruption windows, higher volatility, and how the market may rerate once the path forward becomes clearer.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on the market reaction to a sudden de-escalation in Iran-war fears, with Andreas Steno arguing that the immediate risk of tit-for-tat strikes on energy infrastructure had been priced out for now. The speakers also stressed that damage from the conflict is still accumulating with a lag, so the next few weeks remain critical even if a deal or pause emerges.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays centers on the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz risk, and a major central-bank week. The hosts argue the first-order impact is energy and input inflation, while the larger macro risk depends on whether the disruption persists and spreads into broader supply chains.
Preview:The hosts frame the video as an emergency macro update on the Iran war and its spillovers into oil, shipping, inflation, and positioning. The core view is that the Strait of Hormuz disruption is a shipping bottleneck more than a supply shortage, and that the conflict could still resolve within weeks, but only if flows resume soon.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on the Iran war shock, with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold arguing that the immediate market impact is an energy/shipping squeeze rather than a full oil-supply collapse. They saw oil and European nat gas spiking, tanker/shipping premiums exploding, and tactical opportunities in energy, drones, and some defense names, while warning that a prolonged conflict would pressure airlines, fertiliser-linked inflation, and broader risk assets.
Preview:A casual Real Vision drinks chat that centers on AI’s impact on software, Bloomberg’s defensibility, crypto’s link to SaaS and microtransactions, metals positioning, and some light political banter. The speakers argue the AI selloff in quality software may be overdone, while crypto and private credit need to be watched through the lens of integration, leverage, and the credit cycle.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on two threads: Trump’s tariff turmoil and the accelerating AI buildout. Andreas Steno argued the new tariff move is mostly noise at the direct GDP/inflation level but still meaningful for geopolitics, China retaliation risk, and cyclical uncertainty into April; on AI, he said the market is still too skeptical despite rapid real-world adoption.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays discussion centered on a shifting macro regime: softer-than-expected U.S. inflation, a more resilient U.S. growth backdrop versus Europe, sector rotation driven by AI capex, and tactical opportunities across oil, gold, bonds, and certain non-U.S. equities. The speakers were constructive on the Goldilocks-style setup, but emphasized that AI investment, dollar moves, and geopolitics remain the main swing factors.
Preview:A Real Vision Macro Mondays episode where Andreas argues a macro regime shift is underway: growth is reaccelerating via a capex cycle, inflation is still soft, and liquidity remains supportive. He thinks this combination favors a rotation away from crowded consensus trades, with tactical attention on crypto policy, space tech, and the near-term Iran risk.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on three big macro drivers: a surprisingly strong U.S. manufacturing print, a violent silver crash that likely forced broad metals de-risking, and fast-moving geopolitical risk around Iran, China, and strategic minerals. The speakers’ base case was that bonus depreciation and capex incentives could trigger a U.S. cyclical upswing, while the near-term market is still dominated by headline risk, margin hikes, and event-driven volatility.
Preview:Miguel frames this as a geopolitics-heavy Macro Mondays episode from the Real Vision Crypto Gathering in Miami. He argues that 2026 is being shaped by a move from a unipolar to a bipolar world centered on US–China competition, with Europe forced toward greater strategic independence, while the immediate market themes he highlights are silver’s blow-off move, a likely rotation into copper, and a Fed meeting that should keep the rate-cut path alive.
Preview:This Macro Mondays episode centers on two themes: the immediate geopolitical shock from Trump’s Greenland/tariff threats and a more constructive 2026 cyclical/capex setup. The hosts argue the market is reacting less to an actual 10% tariff than to the risk of an escalating tit-for-tat with Europe, though they think a full-blown escalation is unlikely because the EU moves slowly and prefers bureaucratic containment. Separately, Andreas stays upbeat on a capex-driven cyclical upswing, using PMI strength, small-cap outperformance, and loose positioning in cyclicals/Bitcoin as evidence that markets are still underpricing an industrial rebound.
Preview:Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on the Trump administration’s escalation against the Fed after a DOJ subpoena and Powell’s unusually direct public defense of Fed independence. The speakers argued the market reaction was surprisingly contained, but that gold, silver, and possibly Bitcoin are the clearest beneficiaries while the dollar is the main loser. They also tied the episode to a broader Trump policy mix that increasingly looks like state capitalism, with the administration pushing tariffs, price controls, mortgage-bond support, and heavy industrial spending to keep growth and equities strong into the midterms.
Preview:Real Vision's Macro Mondays kicks off 2026 with hosts Mikkel and Andreas analyzing the Venezuela operation's market impact. They argue oil markets shrugged it off as a "nothing burger" near-term due to dilapidated infrastructure, while the real trade is in US refiners and mining/rare-earth companies tied to decoupling. The larger theme: a geopolitically emboldened US administration accelerates the decoupling trend, fueling gold, bitcoin, and select capex plays. Andreas sees disinflation opening the door for near-term Fed rate cuts, with ISM at 47.9 supporting that view, creating a bullish backdrop for risk assets in January despite — or because of — the geopolitical noise.
Preview:Real Vision's final 2025 Macro Mondays features hosts Mikman and Andreas reflecting on the year's best and worst trades, reviewing country ETF performance dispersion, and laying out their macro thesis for 2026. Key highlights: the DeepSeek AI selloff as a pivotal contrarian call, the surprising outperformance of European and Korean equities over the S&P 500, and a bullish 2026 outlook driven by US bank deregulation, rate cuts, and a pro-cyclical global setup — tempered by fears that late 2026 could mark a cycle peak. Special attention to drone warfare as a major investment theme and ongoing AI capex momentum.
Preview:This is a macro Monday discussion centered on U.S. liquidity, repo-market stress, a likely government reopening, and what that means for risk assets. The speakers argue that the recent spike in secured funding stress is a real liquidity signal, that the Fed will likely have to expand its balance sheet, and that a government reopening should ease the pressure and support a broader risk-asset rebound.
Others tracked across the same asset focus or market thesis.
Unlock every transcript this speaker appears in, compare them with your other followed voices, and ask the agent for the bull, bear, and consensus read in one workspace.
Type a question. Create a free agent to send it and keep the answer linked to this speaker.
Your question is preserved across sign-in.
Free. No card. Takes about a minute.