Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-21 21:04

Recent appearance

Gold: Midterm Year Weakness

Preview:Benjamin Cowen analyzes gold's midterm-year seasonal weakness, noting it's down ~30% from highs and trading near $4,000. He expects the low to form between July and October 2026, consistent with 2018 and 2022 midterm-year patterns. The gold bull market support band sits around $3,800 (~4% below current price), and he believes the bull market could resume toward new highs after the low is set. Silver is underperforming gold as expected due to the low gold-silver ratio, and may not attract attention until gold bottoms.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-19 20:24

Recent appearance

Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

Midterm year seasonalityETH/BTC pair valuation

Preview:Benjamin Cowen analyzes Ethereum's outlook for the remainder of 2026, comparing current price structure to midterm-year patterns from 2018 and 2022. He highlights July as historically a strong month for crypto but warns that August-September has been a window of weakness in prior midterm cycles. With ETH trading near $1,900, he sees two divergent historical analogs: a 40% drawdown scenario (like 2022, sweeping the April 2025 low) or an 80% collapse (like 2018). His base case is something in between, driven by extremely low social participation resembling 2018 more than 2022. He flags a potential Fed rate hike scare in September-October as a catalyst for altcoin weakness.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-18 19:48

Recent appearance

S&P 500: Seasonal Correction Starting in August/September?

August/September weakness seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen presents a seasonal/midterm-year thesis for the S&P 500: a shallow June correction followed by a July rally, then a larger 10-20% drop starting August/September. He draws on the last three midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022) as analogs and ties the S&P correction to Bitcoin's potential four-year cycle bottom.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-16 14:48

Recent appearance

Bitcoin Market Cycles

ROI from cycle low analysisROI after cycle peak analysis

Preview:Benjamin Cowen walks through Bitcoin market cycle charts, comparing the current cycle (day 1333 from low, ~$64K) to prior midterm-year bear markets (2014, 2018, 2022). The core argument: despite narratives that "this time is different," the cycle structure — February low, July relief rally, expected giveback in Aug/Sep, Q4 bottom — is tracking prior patterns closely. He notes social interest (~0.25 risk) resembles 2018 more than 2022. The base case remains time-based capitulation, not price-based. DCA is his preferred approach.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-14 21:14

Inflation and Bitcoin

July 2026 CPI report analysisInflation category breakdown (housing, transportation, food, etc.)

Preview:Benjamin Cowen analyzes the latest CPI report (headline 3.5% vs 4.2% prior, core 2.6% vs 2.9% prior), noting it came in well below expectations and that Bitcoin is rallying in the short term as a result. He frames Bitcoin's July bounce as a seasonal midterm-year pattern that mirrors 2018 and 2022, and expects the rally could extend toward the bear market resistance band into late July or early-to-mid August before resolving lower into Q4. He flags oil as a potential future inflation headwind but sees no immediate threat.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-13 21:58

Understanding This Bitcoin Bear Market

2018 vs 2026 fractal comparisonFour-year cycle thesis

Preview:Benjamin Cowen analyzes Bitcoin's 2026 bear market through a dual-lens framework: structurally it mirrors the 2018 bear market (just less volatile), while from a business-cycle and liquidity perspective it resembles the post-2019-top digestion phase. He argues the four-year cycle remains intact, walks through fractal alignments, warns altcoins could bleed even if BTC holds support, and expects a market cycle bottom by late September/early October rather than December.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-12 23:08

Gold Path for 2026

Preview:Benjamin Cowen lays out his thesis that gold's 2026 pullback is tracking midterm-year seasonality — similar to 2018, 2022, and the multi-decade average — and that a low should form between July and October. He expects a bounce thereafter, setting up strength into 2027, and argues that in prior gold bull markets interrupted by recessions, gold recovered faster than equities. The bull market support band (~$3,800–3,841) remains untagged since 2023 and is his key technical reference.

Altcoin Daily

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-11 11:49

Data Scientist WARNS Bitcoin Holders ⮕ “History is REPEATING!”

2018 vs 2026 price pattern comparisonOn-chain indicators and cycle bottom signals

Preview:Data scientist Benjamin Cowen lays out his case that Bitcoin in 2026 is tracking the 2018 bear market with eerie precision — same pattern of February low, higher low in March/April, lower high at the 200-day MA in May, and a June low sweeping the prior low (5,700 in 2018; 57,000 in 2026). He expects one more capitulation in late Q3 or Q4 2026, targeting high $40Ks to low $50Ks as the base case, with ~$40K as the hard floor where every on-chain indicator would fully reset. He pegs a 40-45% chance the bottom is already in. The key catalyst for the final drop, he argues, will likely be a 10-20% correction in stocks that historically arrives in late midterm years, possibly tied to rate-hike fears — which would then pivot the Fed toward rate cuts and set up the next bull cycle.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-10 10:21

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Midterm year price action and historical analogs (2018 comparison)On-chain indicators — MVRV Z-score, realized price, balance price

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle continues to play out with remarkable precision in 2026. He notes Bitcoin formed a low in February, swept that low in late June/early July (just like 2018), and is now in a brief July counter-trend rally. He expects further downside in August-October, with a potential final capitulation and volume spike marking the cycle bottom around late September to early October. He is DCA-ing Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year and positioning for the next bull market into 2027.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-09 08:18

NFA Live! Bitcoin, World Cup (Not Football Advice)

Fed monetary policy and rate hike riskIran/Hormuz geopolitical risk and oil

Preview:A laid-back mid-2026 crypto panel with Benjamin Cowen, Rob (Digital Asset News), and Nick (Coin Guru). Bitcoin languishes around $60K with multiple on-chain bottom signals firing but no clear catalyst for a breakout. The panel covers the macro overhang (potential Fed rate hikes, oil/Iran geopolitical whiplash), Strategy/MSTR's Bitcoin selling and its optics problem, the dead Clarity Act, and the elephant-in-the-room Saylor pivot from "never sell" to active seller. Roughly half the runtime is World Cup chatter (Argentina comeback, US red-card controversy, Croatia VAR offsides).

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-08 07:21

Bitcoin: Brief Window of Strength

Midterm year seasonalityJuly counter-trend rally

Preview:Benjamin Cowen presents Bitcoin's historical pattern in July of midterm years (2018, 2022), arguing that after a brutal June sell-off, July typically offers a brief counter-trend rally window — historically +20-38% — before gains are given back in August/September. He draws analogies to prior cycles where BTC rallied toward the 200-day MA (~$70-74K currently), then rolled over to form the final cycle bottom in Q4. His core message: the 4-year cycle is playing out as expected; DCA in the second half of the midterm year is the right strategy; don't let counter-trend rallies trigger emotional FOMO. Not a prediction of a new bull — just a seasonal bounce within a larger bear structure.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-05 23:11

Bitcoin: The Four Year Cycle Strikes Again

2018 vs 2026 price pattern comparisonMidterm year seasonality and windows of strength/weakness

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern continues to play out in 2026, with price action tracking a less-volatile version of 2018. Bitcoin has followed the same sequence: February low, higher low in late March/early April, lower high at the 200-day MA in May, sweep of the February low in June, and a July bounce. He expects a counter-trend rally toward the 200-day moving average in July/August, followed by a give-back into August/September and a potential final low as early as October. He advises DCA accumulation in the second half of the midterm year and addresses critics of the four-year cycle theory.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-02 22:48

Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 71)

2019-2020 monetary policy analogy

Preview:Benjamin Cowen presents part 71 of his "Beauty of Mathematics" series, arguing that Bitcoin and the broader crypto asset class will remain below its logarithmic regression "fair value" trend line for the rest of 2026, drawing a structural analogy to the 2019-2020 period. He expects sluggish price action, a potential low later in the year after a summer bounce, and then a transition toward a new bull market cycle in 2027-2028 — ultimately targeting a $10 trillion total crypto market cap.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-02 09:00

NFA Live! Bitcoin Hit a New Low

2018 vs 2026 analogFour-year cycle framework

Preview:Benjamin Cowen, joined by Rob and host Guy, discusses Bitcoin's new cycle low (~$57K) and its rebound to ~$61.5K. Cowen frames the move using a 2018 analog — both years saw a ~5,700/57,000 summer low (10x) — and argues the early-summer low is likely in, though more weakness later in 2026 remains probable on the back of a stock market correction and dollar strength. Rob adds perspective on private vs. open-source LLMs and enterprise data risks. Side topics: World Cup officiating, AI token subsidization ending, yen/dollar strength, and the ITC conference.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-07-01 14:19

Bitcoin: Simulation Confirmed

2018 vs 2026 price-structure comparisonCountertrend rally thesis for July/August 2026

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin's 2026 midterm-year price action is tracking the 2018 playbook nearly tick-for-tick: a February low, a late-March higher low, a May rejection at the bear-market resistance band, and now a late-June/early-July low that sweeps below the February level. The symmetry is striking — 2018's low was ~$5,700; the July 1, 2026 low printed at $57,700. Cowen expects a possible countertrend rally into late July/August (potentially to the 200-day MA), followed by a Q4 drawdown driven by a stock-market correction that would mark the cycle bottom. His strategy: ignore Bitcoin in H1, DCA through H2 of midterm years. He repeatedly stresses he does not know the exact path and that seasonality is a tendency, not a law.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-30 09:23

S&P 500: Outlook for the Rest of 2026 [Update]

Shallow June correction patternSummer drift and late-year correction analog

Preview:Benjamin Cowen maps the S&P 500's 2026 path against historical midterm-year patterns (2014, 2018, 2022), arguing the recent ~5% June correction fits the playbook for a shallow summer dip. He expects a low-volume summer drift higher into July/August, followed by a larger 10-20% correction starting around August-September, with a late-September/early-October low. He ties this to dollar strength as a headwind and frames the reset as a setup for Bitcoin's cycle bottom and the next crypto bull market.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-28 20:52

Bitcoin Falls Below the 200 Week Moving Average

Midterm-year bear market analog (2018, 2022)

Preview:Benjamin Cowen analyzes Bitcoin's first weekly close below its 200-week moving average this cycle. He frames it as a normal midterm-year bear market pattern, comparing 2026 to 2018 and 2022. His base case: time-based capitulation with a summer low, a counter-trend rally mid-to-late summer, then a final drop into Q3/early Q4 to the cycle bottom. Unless there's price-based capitulation (a volume-spike event like FTX/Luna or the pandemic), he sees this playing out like prior cycles. He recommends DCA'ing Bitcoin in the second half of midterm years rather than trying to trade counter-trend rallies.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-27 22:48

Bitcoin Returns Under Various US Presidents

Macro headwinds for crypto (inflation, unemployment, dollar strength)

Preview:Benjamin Cowen compares Bitcoin's return paths under four US presidential periods (Obama 2nd term, Trump 1st, Biden, Trump 2nd), finding that despite political differences, Bitcoin's cycle behavior is remarkably similar when aligned by days-in-office. Both Biden and Trump's second term show BTC down ~41-44% at the 524-day mark. He also overlays the DXY, noting the dollar has traced nearly identical patterns under both Trump terms — selling off early, then grinding higher — and suggests dollar strength toward 105-106 could remain a headwind for crypto later in the year. If the analog holds, Bitcoin bottoms later in 2026 and enters the next bull market into 2027.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-25 15:10

Bitcoin: Bottom Indicators to Watch

ROI-from-the-low cycle timing modelRealized price and balance price as capitulation levels

Preview:Benjamin Cowen walks through his preferred Bitcoin bottoming indicators, centered on the ROI-from-the-low timing model that suggests a cycle bottom around late Q3/early Q4 2026 (~100-110 days from the video date). He layers in MVRV Z-score, realized price (~$53K), running one-year ROI, on-chain risk metrics, and volume capitulation patterns. His base case is time-based capitulation with a summer low, a countertrend rally into late summer, then a final drop into Q4. He keeps the door open for price-based capitulation — a drop to the balance price (~$38K) would override the timing model and signal full reset. He promotes the ITC conference in Miami (November 21) which he scheduled around the expected cycle low.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-25 08:47

NFA Live! Where the Next Bull Run is Hiding

Memory and chip stocks (Micron, SanDisk) as the current bull marketMidterm-year equity seasonality and correction patterns

Preview:A three-host roundtable (Rob, Ben Cowen, Guy from Coin Bureau) scans for "where the next bull run is hiding." Guy identifies the memory/chip trade — Micron and SanDisk are ripping on hyperscaler AI spend flowing downstream. Ben expects a shallow equities dip in June then rally into Aug/Sept before a larger Q4 drop, at which point the bull market could rotate back into Bitcoin. Both affirm the four-year Bitcoin cycle as still intact and advise against sitting 100% in cash: own assets long-term, buy Bitcoin around end-of-midterm-year. Macro risks flagged include a possible Fed rate-hike split in July, US-Iran tensions, negative real disposable income, and record cash on the sidelines (Buffett, stablecoins).

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-24 10:36

Bitcoin: A Path to the Bottom

midterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still following a typical midterm-year/bear-market pattern and is likely working toward a cycle bottom in Q4, possibly around October. His base case is a weak summer, one more counter-trend rally, and then a final drop into the bottom, with altcoins likely continuing to underperform and bleed out versus Bitcoin.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-23 17:42

SpaceX Retraces IPO Gains - What Next?

SpaceX IPOTesla comparisonElon Musk

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues SpaceX’s first post-listing surge has already faded in a pattern he thinks is common for IPOs: initial hype, a sharp retrace, and then a longer period of digestion before a durable base forms. He compares the launch to Tesla’s 2010 IPO, highlighting similarities in timing, Musk leadership, and the tendency for early gains to get given back, while stressing that SpaceX’s larger starting market cap makes the move harder to sustain in percentage terms.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-22 00:04

Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band

200-week moving averagefour-year cycle

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin remains below his ‘bear market resistance band’ and is therefore still vulnerable to another leg lower, even if countertrend rallies occur first. He emphasizes that bear markets often produce repeated tests of that band, with summer lows commonly forming in June or early summer before a later July/August bounce.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-20 23:42

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score

MVRV Z-Scoreon-chain metrics

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is nearing a historically attractive accumulation zone. He says the metric has often reset below zero around major cycle lows, and while it is not a precise top-timing tool, it has repeatedly marked periods when long-term Bitcoin buying was favorable.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-19 00:18

Bitcoin Social Risk

social risk metricretail participation

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are in a social-interest downcycle that resembles 2019 more than a classic euphoric blow-off top. His core thesis is that low and falling retail attention, combined with restrictive monetary conditions and a continuing AI/equity-led risk-on environment, keeps altcoins under pressure and leaves Bitcoin and crypto broadly without the liquidity backdrop needed for a durable rebound.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-17 23:29

Kevin Warsh's First FOMC as Fed Chair

FOMCKevin Warshforward guidance

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the Fed has entered a new era under Kevin Warsh, with less forward guidance and a higher risk of tightening if inflation stays sticky. He connects the recent FOMC, a rising two-year yield, and market pricing for a possible rate hike to a broader bearish setup for crypto and other risk assets.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-16 11:47

The SpaceX IPO

SpaceX IPOElon MuskTesla comparison

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that the SpaceX IPO is likely to follow a familiar post-IPO pattern: an initial surge, a pullback, and then a more durable long-term advance if the company proves successful. He frames SpaceX through the lens of Elon Musk’s track record, Tesla’s IPO, and examples like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Rivian to argue that hype can create a near-term buying opportunity after enthusiasm fades. The key tactical warning is that midterm-year seasonality and broader market weakness could line up with a second-half drawdown in SpaceX, even if the long-term thesis remains intact.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-14 17:21

Bitcoin: Time-Based Capitulation

time-based capitulationprice-based capitulation

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a time-based capitulation phase rather than a fully confirmed price-based capitulation. His base case is that the cycle may not be done until later in the year—possibly Q4—unless Bitcoin first flushes hard enough to reset on-chain indicators, which would force him to abandon the time-based view sooner.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-13 20:25

Bitcoin Dynamic DCA: How I Navigate Crypto

dynamic DCArisk metrics

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin investors should use a dynamic DCA framework rather than trying to nail exact tops and bottoms. He says the current risk regime is low enough to justify selective accumulation, but the key is patience, discipline, and having a plan before euphoria returns.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-12 23:50

Gold Outlook for the Rest of 2026

seasonalitymidterm year patterns

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues gold remains in a broader bull market despite the sharp 2026 pullback. His base case is that the current correction is a normal mid-cycle consolidation, with a likely low forming sometime between June and October, and a possible path to new highs in 2027-2028 rather than immediately.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-11 22:21

Bitcoin: Using On-Chain Metrics To Identify Market Cycle Bottoms

supply in profit/losscycle bottoms

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s on-chain risk indicators are flashing a late-cycle/bear-market-bottom setup. His core claim is that normalized versions of supply-in-profit/loss and related on-chain metrics tend to mark major cycle lows within roughly 1–4 months after crossing, and he says those crossovers have now happened again. He frames the current phase as a third-and-final stage of the bear market, with a bottom most likely in 2026, possibly as soon as October, and says he would move from time-based to price-based capitulation if price action forces that.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-10 22:48

Bitcoin: The Cost Basis of the Network

on-chain metricsbear market bottoms

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s realized price is a useful bear-market reference point, and that BTC has not yet fully reached the kind of downside extreme that often precedes cycle lows. He notes realized price is around $53k–$54k, points out BTC is still above it, and says the timing still leaves open a later-year bottom in a midterm-year pattern.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-09 23:39

Bitcoin: A Beautiful Chart

four-year cyclesupply in profit

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is at or near a cycle transition point, using a supply-in-profit versus supply-in-loss crossover chart as the key signal. He says the cross has historically preceded market-cycle lows by roughly 1-4 months, so he is open-minded to a bottom forming now through late summer/early fall, but warns the market can still frustrate traders before then.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-08 20:15

Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 71) - 1 Million Subscriber Milestone!

logarithmic regression

Preview:Benjamin Cowen reflects on his 1 million subscriber milestone and revisits his long-running Bitcoin “beauty of mathematics” framework. His core market view is cautious: he thinks Bitcoin will likely spend the rest of the year below his fair-value regression line, with June still a plausible local-low window, while the broader crypto market cap has grown from $261B to $2.179T and may ultimately trend toward $10T+.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-07 23:15

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

200-week EMAbear market structure

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is showing a familiar mid-cycle/bear-market structure: a February low, a June sweep or low, then a likely weak-but-not-broken summer with a possible countertrend rally later. He treats the call as probabilistic rather than certain, emphasizing that it is still early in June and that the next week or two will help confirm whether the 200-week EMA hold is meaningful.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-06 22:32

Bitcoin Enters the 3rd Stage of the Bear Market

investor psychologysentiment polling

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has moved into the third and final stage of its bear market. He frames bear markets as a psychology cycle: stage one is when few people believe the downtrend is real, stage two is when roughly half the market accepts it after a lower low, and stage three is when a majority finally accepts the bear trend—usually right before the bear market ends.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-05 23:58

Bitcoin Sweeps The February 2026 Low

2018 comparison2019 comparison

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has already swept the February 2026 low and that this remains consistent with a broader bear-market / midterm-year pattern rather than evidence the cycle is over. He compares 2026 with 2018, 2019, 2014, and 2022, but ultimately says the most likely path is still another lower low later in the year, with October the base-case timing unless a sharper price capitulation changes the setup.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-05 13:06

Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

transcript mismatchmrbeast introoffice routine

Preview:The provided transcript is not a Benjamin Cowen Bitcoin analysis at all; it is a brief MrBeast-style lifestyle intro about waking up, going to the office, brainstorming videos, testing set builds, and valuing the final result of giving back to people. There is no market content, no Bitcoin thesis, and no identifiable host/guest structure beyond a single speaking persona.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-05 00:09

Bitcoin Falls to the 200W Moving Average

200-week moving averagemidterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has hit its recurring 200-week moving average ‘date with destiny,’ but says the current setup still leaves room for further weakness in June before any meaningful bounce. His base case is a June low, a countertrend rally into July/August if the 200W MA holds, and then a possible later-year retest or deeper capitulation depending on broader risk-off conditions and stock-market weakness.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-04 08:51

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

Tesla referral programpromotional disclosureModel S/X/3/Y discount

Preview:This is not a market analysis transcript; it is a brief Tesla referral promo. The speaker says the referral program changed and directs viewers to a current link for $1,000 off eligible Tesla models.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-03 22:00

Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

four-year cycleJune low

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a familiar mid-cycle bear-market structure, with a June low likely around the 200-day moving average and a bigger market-cycle bottom still more likely in Q4, especially October. He leans on prior cycle analogs, on-chain metrics, and bear-market behavior to say this is still normal, while warning that a deeper capitulation could invalidate the timing and force a faster bullish reassessment.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-02 14:18

Bitcoin: A Date with Destiny

200-week moving average2018 analog

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is likely approaching a cyclical low window in June, with the 200-week moving average as the key downside magnet. He sees the recent rally as failing to break the familiar post-bull-market pattern, and expects some weakness into June or early July before a possible July bounce and later-year volatility.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-06-01 00:27

Bitcoin Closes Below the Bear Market Resistance Band

bear market resistance band200-day moving average

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin has already failed the key bear-market resistance band again, which he sees as a familiar mid-cycle pattern that often leads to a brief bounce, then a retest of prior lows rather than immediate continuation higher.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-29 22:12

Bitcoin: Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles

asymmetric tail curvaturepower law model

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin price quantiles are best modeled with asymmetric tail curvature: the lower tail has remained reasonably well-described by a power-law-like structural support, while the upper tail has shown diminishing euphoria across cycles. He presents a new quantile framework as a more mathematically rigorous version of prior rainbow/power-law/quantile charts, and uses it to frame current Bitcoin as still below euphoric levels, with midterm-year weakness and possible lower-quantile retests still plausible.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-29 00:07

Bitcoin: The Window of Weakness

midterm-year weakness200-day moving average

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a seasonal “window of weakness” that likely persists into June, with the current selloff fitting prior midterm-year patterns. He expects a possible countertrend rally in July, but thinks the more important low may still come later in the year, potentially into Q4, so he advises against panic-selling and against trying to trade every bounce.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-28 08:39

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

midterm-year seasonalitycrypto opportunity cost

Preview:A live crypto discussion focused on Bitcoin’s weak, sideways 2026 tape and the idea that midterm-year seasonality is still dominating. Ben Cowen and Guy argue the market is boring but structurally normal for this part of the cycle, with Bitcoin likely to keep underperforming until later in the year while other assets—energy, bonds, select equities, and some crypto projects—offer better opportunity cost. They also discuss how big IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI could affect liquidity and index rebalancing, but view them more as a market-structure story than a direct crypto thesis.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-27 23:31

Bitcoin Falls Below The Bear Market Resistance Band

midterm-year seasonalitybear market resistance band

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has slipped back below its bear-market resistance band and that the current move still looks consistent with prior midterm-year behavior: sharp countertrend rallies, then rejection, then deeper weakness into a later-year bottom. He says the daily trend is weak, the weekly 20-week moving average is only slightly above current price, and the market may continue to struggle for months as macro pricing shifts toward fewer cuts and possibly hikes.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-27 07:03

S&P 500: Outlook for the Rest of 2026

midterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the S&P 500 likely has more upside first, but expects a small summer pullback and then a larger decline later in 2026, with timing framed around an S&P/M2 fractal and midterm-year seasonality. He also says Bitcoin is likely to lag and then get hit harder if stocks correct, while he personally remains long diversified index funds and favors international stocks more than U.S. stocks right now.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-25 19:46

Bitcoin: The Four Year Cycle Is Not Dead

Bitcoin four-year cyclebear-market rallypost-halving timing

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still intact despite ETF flows, institutional buying, and other narratives that were supposed to break it. His core case is that Bitcoin has still topped in the same post-halving time window as prior cycles, that the current bear-market rally resembles prior cycle rallies, and that the evidence from both Bitcoin and historical S&P 500 cycle behavior supports expecting more downside before a midterm-year low, likely later this year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-24 22:28

Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band

Bitcoin bear marketmidterm-year seasonalitybear market resistance band

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a midterm bear-market pattern, with the recent bounce likely another relief rally rather than a durable bottom. He thinks the selloff into June increases the odds of a June low, and he expects Bitcoin to keep underperforming the S&P 500 for a few more months as liquidity and rate-hike expectations remain a headwind.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-21 08:48

NFA Live

Clarity Actcrypto regulationinflation

Preview:A crypto live stream focused on the stalled U.S. Clarity Act, the inflation/oil/rates backdrop, and whether that mix favors taking profits in crypto rather than chasing late-cycle strength. The speakers leaned cautious on altcoins, more constructive on Bitcoin relative to weaker crypto names, and generally more defensive on risk assets if inflation and rates rise.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-20 22:08

Ethereum: Rejected off the Bear Market Resistance Band

Ethereum regression bandsETH/BTC weakness

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Ethereum has been rejected from its bear-market resistance band and is likely to drift back toward the April 2025 lows / lower regression band, with ETH/BTC continuing to bleed as liquidity tightens and recession risk remains unconfirmed.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-19 22:00

Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern [Update]

stablecoin dominance

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bearish, cycle-like setup and compares current stablecoin dominance behavior to prior false breakout/backtest patterns that preceded major moves in past cycles.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-18 21:49

Bitcoin Rejected off the 200D

Bitcoin technical analysis200-day moving averagebear market analogies

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day moving average, which he sees as a bearish signal consistent with prior mid-cycle bear-market behavior. He expects weakness to persist into June and possibly Q3/Q4, with a potential October low as the more optimistic bear-case outcome.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-17 10:26

Bitcoin: Psychology of a Bear Market

Bitcoin bear market psychologyhistorical cycle analogsJune seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bear market even though it has been rallying, and says bear markets are psychologically deceptive because they produce convincing countertrend rallies that fool both bulls and bears. He leans bearish for the coming months, expecting a possible June turning point and a likely further decline into Q4, with Bitcoin potentially underperforming gold, the S&P, and other assets.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-15 14:56

Powell Steps Down as Chair of the Federal Reserve

Jerome Powell stepping downinflation reacceleration

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Jerome Powell stepping down as Fed chair is a meaningful but not immediately decisive macro event. He expects Kevin Warsh, if confirmed, will face pressure to cut rates into rising inflation and potentially firmer oil, which could keep policy tighter for longer and add volatility to risk assets. He also extends his usual cyclical view that Bitcoin and equities still fit a four-year cycle framework, with a likely later-year correction rather than a clean continuation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-14 15:00

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Bitcoin bear market200-day moving averageFibonacci retracement

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a bearish countertrend rally inside a broader bear-market structure, with the 200-day moving average as the key near-term resistance and roughly $85K as the next upside level if it clears it.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-13 08:55

Market Returns by Political Party

political regime analysismidterms and congressional control

Preview:Benjamin Cowen reviews historical market returns by U.S. political party control and argues the data shows stock market, dollar, Bitcoin, and gold performance varies by regime, with the strongest stock market averages under Democratic presidents with divided Congress and the weakest under Republican presidents with a Democratic Congress.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-12 10:36

Inflation Rises to 3.8%

energy pricesFederal Reserve rate cuts

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the hotter-than-expected CPI print (around 3.8%) is mostly supply/energy-driven, which pushes rate cuts further out and may keep pressure on higher-risk assets like altcoins. He says the stock market can still hold up, but the combination of rising inflation and a potentially weakening labor market raises late-cycle recession risk and makes the Fed more constrained.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-11 08:49

Bitcoin Approaches an Important Level

200-day moving averagebear market analogs

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has reached a key technical inflection point at the 200-day moving average, which has often acted as resistance in prior bear markets. He believes the current move may still fit a broader bear-market pattern and says he remains biased for eventual weakness later in the year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-08 13:10

Labor Market Holds Steady

recession riskinitial claims

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the U.S. labor market is still holding up: unemployment is steady, initial claims and layoffs remain low, and the data do not yet look recessionary. He thinks summer seasonality could bring higher claims, but the bigger market implication is that a later-year stock-market correction could coincide with a renewed Bitcoin drawdown.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-07 07:29

Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 70)

crypto market caplogarithmic regression

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that crypto is still trading below his logarithmic fair-value framework and is likely to remain undervalued through the rest of 2026, even if rallies continue. He frames Bitcoin’s current strength as a move that has not yet translated into a durable expansion in total crypto market-cap valuation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-05 12:26

Bitcoin Bear Goggles

Bitcoin bear marketbear-market rallies200-day moving average

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally, and that the move looks broadly similar to prior bear-market rebounds rather than a decisive regime change.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-05-02 06:49

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

midterm-year seasonality2018 comparison

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin remains in a midterm bear-market structure, with Q4 2025 having been the selling window and the current rally likely to fade into a lower high before another weakness window, potentially in June or October.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-30 23:24

Jerome Powell: "I Won't See You Next Time"

Jerome Powellinterest rates

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Jerome Powell’s exit as Fed chair may be a turning point markets misread as bullish. His core view is that political pressure, rising energy prices, and delayed rate cuts could undermine Fed credibility and eventually end in a recession, even if the near-term reaction is optimism.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-30 08:48

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

South Africa crypto crackdowncrypto confiscation riskFed independence

Preview:A live NFA discussion centered on South Africa’s proposed crypto crackdown, the political and institutional risks around Fed independence after Powell’s final FOMC, and broader reflections on crypto sentiment and building businesses in the current cycle.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-28 23:03

FOMC: The End of an Era

FOMC meetingJerome PowellFederal Reserve policy

Preview:Ben Cowen frames the April 29 FOMC as Powell’s final meeting as Fed chair and argues it marks the end of an era. His core view is that rising energy prices and geopolitical conflict are keeping inflation sticky, so the Fed is unlikely to cut soon even though parts of the labor market are weakening.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-27 14:33

Bitcoin: Battle at the Bear Market Resistance Band

Bitcoin resistance bandmidterm-year cycle analogs2018 comparison

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is again testing its bear-market resistance band, and he does not think this is yet the start of a durable new bullish regime. He expects a near-term resolution within a week or two, with a higher risk that Bitcoin gets rejected and later retests lower support levels rather than breaking out cleanly.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-25 23:29

Bitcoin: Heikin-Ashi Candles

heikin-ashi candlesbear market analogs

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s recent monthly Heikin-Ashi candle structure still looks like a mid-cycle bear-market countertrend rally, not a confirmed new bull market. He uses prior midterm years (especially 2018 and 2022) plus seasonality and the upcoming FOMC meeting to suggest the rally could top in the next week or two and weaken into June.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-24 16:21

Bitcoin Dominance

altcoin weakness

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin dominance is still structurally strong and that altcoins have continued bleeding into Bitcoin, especially once stablecoins are excluded. He frames the current crypto regime as one where restrictive policy, weak alt liquidity, and falling social interest keep favoring Bitcoin over alts and most other crypto assets.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-23 14:41

Market Discussion with Gareth Soloway, Mike McGlone, And Scott Melker

Bitcoinmacro cycle

Preview:A multi-speaker market roundtable argues that investors are ignoring geopolitical and commodity shocks for now because the U.S. economy and earnings still look resilient, but several guests expect that complacency to break later in the year. Bitcoin is treated as vulnerable to a mid-to-late-year drawdown, crude oil and gas are seen as inflationary pressure points, and gold/Treasuries are framed as better hedges if volatility rises.

The Wolf Of All Streets

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-23 14:38

Will Bitcoin's Rally Continue? What You Need To Know | Ben Cowen

gasoline and diesel

Preview:A panel interview with Ben Cowen argues that markets are still discounting geopolitical and commodity shocks because the economy has not yet rolled over decisively. Cowen’s core view is that the current Bitcoin rally can continue a bit further, but the broader setup is still late-cycle and likely vulnerable to a summer weakness / later-year drawdown before any more durable bottom forms.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-23 08:40

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026!

Bitcoin seasonalitybear marketsBitcoin dominance

Preview:A roundtable on Benjamin Cowen’s NFA Live argues that Bitcoin’s current bounce fits normal bear-market seasonality, with likely weakness returning later in the summer rather than immediately. The discussion also pivots into crypto market structure, ETF narrative strength, Bitcoin dominance, and surprise macro/geopolitical developments.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-21 13:49

Gold: Dubious Speculation

recession analogstechnical indicators

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues gold’s recent 2026 pullback looks like a normal interruption within a still-bullish longer-term cycle, not necessarily a major secular top. He compares today’s setup to prior gold bull markets in 1973/74, 2006, and 2008, and says gold still looks stronger than stocks and likely stronger than Bitcoin for the rest of the year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-19 23:55

Bitcoin Rallies to the Bear Market Resistance Band

21-week EMAbear-market resistance band

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has rallied into the bear-market resistance band around the 21-week EMA, but he thinks the move is still best viewed as a bear-market countertrend rally rather than proof of a durable reversal. He expects the market to keep chopping between resistance and the 200-day moving average, with a mild short-term bid possible into the late-April Fed/BoJ window, but he still leans lower later this year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-17 06:54

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

seasonalitybear market resistance band

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s recent April bounce is still consistent with a broader bearish mid-cycle pattern rather than a durable bottom. He emphasizes seasonality, moving-average resistance, and stablecoin dominance as reasons to expect weakness to re-emerge into late April or early May, potentially sending BTC back toward the 60K area.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-16 21:07

Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.4%

initial claimsrecession risk

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the latest drop in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.4% is a modest near-term positive, but not enough to justify an imminent recession call or a more dovish Fed pivot. He says layoffs remain low, labor indicators are softening rather than collapsing, and the main consequence is that tight policy may persist longer while crypto stays relatively weak versus stocks and metals.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-16 08:40

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

X Moneysuper appWeChat comparison

Preview:A live crypto-market discussion focused on X Money, the Clarity Act, inflation/rate cuts, and whether the current stock-market rally can keep going into a volatile midterm year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-14 21:37

Stocks Rally Back Near The Highs

S&P 500late-cycle distribution

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the S&P 500 may be in a late-cycle distribution phase: after a ~10% drawdown, a rally back near prior highs could still be followed by months of choppy higher highs/lower lows before a more meaningful top. He uses Bitcoin and prior late-business-cycle periods (2007, 2000, 2018) as analogs, while emphasizing this is probabilistic rather than certain.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-12 22:31

Bitcoin: Realist Vs. Doomer

late business cyclerecession risk

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that calling for a roughly 70% Bitcoin drawdown from the 2025 high is not a 'doomer' take but a historically normal bear-market view. He contrasts that with a true doomer scenario where Bitcoin stays weak longer, the stock market follows a bearish fractal, and the eventual bottom comes later and potentially much lower in time, even if not dramatically lower in price.

The Wolf Of All Streets

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-12 08:00

"Bitcoin Will Bottom When This Happens" | Ben Cowen

bear market vs bottomingmidterm-year seasonality

Preview:Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin is still more likely in a bear-market phase than having already bottomed, with only about a 25% chance the low is in. He thinks Bitcoin can bounce or even revisit 80K without confirming a lasting bottom, and he expects a potentially short-lived break below 60K later this year if the cycle continues to play out.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-10 15:28

Inflation Soars to 3.3%

energy prices

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the hotter CPI print is consistent with a late-cycle inflation shock that could pin the Fed and worsen an already weakening labor market, raising recession risk.

Altcoin Daily

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-10 11:36

The Exact Date Bitcoin May Bottom in 2026 (Ben Cowen Explains)

2026 bear market timing2019 analogy

Preview:Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bear-market digestion phase after the 2026 Q1 drawdown, with the highest-probability cycle bottom still ahead—most likely in October, though he allows an earlier May trough if a macro crisis hits. He says the setup looks similar to 2019 and other late-cycle periods: tight liquidity, weakening labor data, firmer inflation, no real altseason, and price structure that still hasn’t completed the on-chain reset he expects before a durable low.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-08 14:30

Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band

Bitcoin bear-market resistance band20-week SMA / 21-week EMAmidterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bear-market environment and is likely to face resistance near the 78K–79K zone, with a meaningful chance the current low is not in. He uses historical midterm-year analogs (2014, 2018, 2019, 2022), on-chain valuation metrics, and stock-market analogs to frame the next few months as a window of weakness rather than a confirmed bottom.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-07 12:00

Stocks and Geopolitical Conflict

geopolitical conflictlate business cycle

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that the S&P 500 is in a late-cycle, high-risk regime where geopolitical conflict, rising oil, weakening labor, and re-accelerating inflation could accelerate a broader stock-market top or bear phase.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-05 15:54

Bitcoin: The Dangers of Complacency

bitcoin bear marketcomplacencylate business cycle

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a bear market and that the current calm is a complacency phase that often precedes another leg lower. He ties that view to late-cycle macro conditions, elevated oil prices, tight liquidity, and weakening risk appetite across crypto.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-03 06:41

Bitcoin to Drop Another 30% against Gold?

Bitcoin vs goldlate business cyclerelative valuation

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is likely to fall another 30-40% versus gold this year, framing the move as part of a broader late-cycle rotation where lower-risk assets like gold outperform.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-02 07:07

Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 69)

fair value

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain below a fair-value benchmark, with this cycle lacking the usual euphoric altcoin blow-off that would push valuations durably higher. He thinks the total crypto market cap may still drift down toward a lower regression trend line this year, while the longer-run path still points toward roughly a $10T market cap over time.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-04-01 11:14

Into The BabyVerse

October bottom thesisbear-market psychology

Preview:Benjamin Cowen turns an April 1 joke about his fifth child’s May due date into a Bitcoin/market timing riff: he says his prior October bottom call still seems most likely, but a faster-than-expected bear-market end is possible. The main substantive message is behavioral: don’t get bearish at the top and then refuse to turn bullish later.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-31 07:00

Bitcoin: An Improved Social Risk Metric

Google TrendsCoinbase app ranking

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues his updated social risk metric still points to weak retail interest in Bitcoin and crypto, supporting the view that the market remains in a late-cycle, risk-off phase rather than a real altseason setup.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-30 06:18

Stocks Have Dropped 9% - What's Next?

April low timingcountertrend rally

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the S&P 500 is in a short-term bearish correction that likely continues a bit further before an April low and a countertrend rally. He frames the move using repeated comparisons to Bitcoin, gold-relative valuation breaks, and prior cycle analogs like 2018, 2008, and 1999, while warning that a deeper bear-market path remains possible if the rally only retests or sweeps prior highs.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-28 05:53

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Bitcoin cycle timingmidterm-year seasonalitycountertrend rallies

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has entered a seasonal/midterm-year "window of weakness" and expects downside into the first half of April, with a potential low around the 60K area first and possibly deeper if macro shock forces capitulation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-26 22:03

How Will Bitcoin Do When the Business Cycle Ends?

late business cycleBitcoin cycleliquidity conditions

Preview:The video argues that Bitcoin’s current behavior only makes sense if the market is in a late-business-cycle phase, where risk is rolling down the curve and liquidity is tight. The speaker expects Bitcoin and crypto to remain under pressure relative to lower-risk assets until a recession or crisis resets the cycle.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-26 09:14

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

Bitcoin cycle behaviorcrypto adoptioninstitutional adoption

Preview:A crypto-macro livestream with Ben Cowen and Rob discussing why Bitcoin still seems to follow its own cycle despite headline-driven markets, what real crypto adoption looks like, how to hedge geopolitical and inflation shocks, and how dependent modern life is on the internet.

David Lin

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-25 20:38

Will Bitcoin Crash To $40k Next? Ben Cowen Warns Bear Market Not Over

bitcoin bear marketmidterm-year seasonalitylate business cycle

Preview:Ben Cowan argues Bitcoin is still in a midterm-year bear market and likely has more downside before a true bottom, with possible tests of 60K and even 40-50K before a later recovery. He frames the weakness as part of a broader late-business-cycle regime where risk assets rotate down the curve from alts to Bitcoin to stocks to gold.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-24 22:32

Bitcoin: Preparing for the Next Leg Down

four-year cyclemidterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is likely setting up for another leg down, based on repeated mid-cycle seasonal patterns, weakness versus S&P 500 and gold, and several on-chain/valuation indicators that have not yet reached prior bear-market lows.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-23 12:23

Gold Drops Nearly 30%

gold correctionlate business cycleS&P 500 vs gold

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that gold’s ~20–30% pullback is a normal correction within a still-intact longer-term bull market, and he frames it as a late-cycle asset that should eventually benefit again if recessionary stress and renewed policy easing arrive.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-21 23:07

Stocks Have Dropped 7% - What's Next?

S&P 500 correctionmidterm-year seasonality

Preview:The speaker argues stocks are in a likely correction after falling about 7%, with a base case for a further move toward a 10% drawdown and possibly a deeper selloff if the market fails to reclaim highs. He emphasizes the S&P 500 breaking down versus gold as the more important warning signal, while also noting a potential alternate path tied to money-supply/fractal analogies that could imply a sharper, longer bear phase if it persists.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-19 23:24

Bitcoin: The Bear Market Blues

post-halving seasonality21-week EMA

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bear market and that the current countertrend bounce may be close to ending, with a likely next leg down that could take BTC below prior lows. He leans on historical post-halving seasonality and recurring bear-market structure rather than any new fundamental catalyst.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-19 08:53

NFA Live

inflation vs unemployment

Preview:A livestream discussion focused on Powell/Fed policy under inflation and oil-shock pressure, Bitcoin whale selling and diversification, and the collapse of the metaverse narrative. The speakers argued the Fed is boxed in by inflation and weak jobs, Bitcoin is still a long-term asset but not something to go all-in on late cycle, and many metaverse/crypto hype arcs were premature or structurally weak.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-18 23:26

Bitcoin: Post-FOMC

FOMCFederal Reserve

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s post-FOMC weakness fits a broader late-business-cycle / bear-market setup, with oil, inflation, and labor-market weakness constraining the Fed and making a deeper pullback more likely.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-17 21:42

Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern [Update]

bitcoin cycle timingstablecoin dominancebull market support band

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bear-market-style lower-high structure, while stablecoin dominance is showing the same kind of breakout-and-higher-low pattern that in his view usually persists before a larger move higher. He says the current BTC bounce is likely to be rejected near the bull market support band, with a later lower low more likely than a fresh bull-cycle continuation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-16 17:50

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Bitcoin cycle timingmidterm-year seasonalitybear-market resistance

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still following a typical midterm-year pattern: a February low, a March rally, and then likely a lower high rather than a durable breakout. He sees some bottoming signals as supportive, but says the broader bear-market structure and relative weakness versus other assets are not yet resolved.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-15 23:06

Stocks Have Now Dropped 5% - What's Next?

late business cyclerecession risk

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the stock market is in the early stages of a correction, with roughly 5% already down and a 10% drawdown still the base case, but not necessarily an immediate recession signal. He frames the move as part of a late-business-cycle regime where liquidity is tightening, leadership is rotating toward lower-risk assets, and the key risk is whether labor-market weakness eventually confirms a deeper downturn.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-12 17:45

Bitcoin: The Four Year Cycle Did Not Die

post-halving cycle timingbear market structure

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still intact: in his view BTC topped in Q4 2025 on schedule, then entered a bear market that is broadly behaving like prior cycles. He cautions that it’s too early in the midterm year to declare a bottom, despite some indicators that could support that view.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-12 09:00

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

Bitcoin four-year cyclealtcoin bear market

Preview:A live crypto discussion arguing that Bitcoin’s broader four-year cycle still looks intact, but the current cycle has been disappointing for altcoins and scarred by weak sentiment, scams, and late-cycle excess. The speakers lean bearish tactically, emphasize profit-taking and diversification, and frame the current drawdown as a purge that could strengthen the asset class long term.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-10 15:14

Bitcoin: The Structure of a Bear Market

midterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still in a bear-market structure despite intermittent rallies, with bear markets often spending more time grinding up before breaking to a new low. He remains bearish tactically, expects another breakdown within months, and warns against narrative-chasing and short-term flip-flopping.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-08 23:22

Bitcoin: Simulation Confirmed

midterm-year seasonalityfour-year cycle

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s recent rally-and-rejection pattern matches his expected midterm-year seasonality and prior cycle analogs, so the first-week-of-March bounce should be faded and the market likely drifts lower into April and beyond.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-07 19:35

Oil Spikes 35%

business cyclelate-cycle risk

Preview:The speaker argues that oil’s record weekly surge is a late-cycle macro warning, not just a commodity move. He says the jump in crude raises inflation risk, may delay Fed easing, and could help tip a soft landing into a harder slowdown or recession, though he stops short of calling an immediate crash.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-06 12:06

Check

Fed policy

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the Fed is increasingly trapped between a weakening labor market and rising energy prices, framing the setup as a late-cycle 'checkmate' risk for risk assets. He uses payrolls, unemployment trends, oil spikes, and his business-cycle framework to argue that markets may still have room to rally in spots, but the broader environment is turning fragile.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-04 16:16

Bitcoin: We Really Do Live in a Simulation

midterm-year seasonalitybear market rallies

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s current move fits a recurring midterm-year pattern: a February low, a strong early-March rally, then a likely lower high and renewed downside. He says the move feels eerily repetitive versus prior post-halving and bear-market cycles, and he remains base-case bearish until a more durable low forms later this year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-03 10:04

Bitcoin: A Bear Market State of Mind

midterm-year seasonalitylower highs and lower lows

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a bear-market-like phase, with lower highs/lower lows more likely than a quick recovery, and compares current price action to prior midterm-year drawdowns in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-02 11:44

Bitcoin: The Early March Rally

midterm year patternmarch rally

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is following a recurring midterm-year pattern: a February low, a March rally that likely becomes a lower high, and then renewed weakness into April–May.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-03-01 14:45

Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 68)

Bitcointotal crypto market capregression bands

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain in a bear market, with valuations still below his fair-value regression trend line and room to fall further before a durable bottom later this year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-28 13:38

The Mechanism That Ends Business Cycles

business cycle endingsgeopolitical conflictoil prices

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that late-cycle conditions are still in place and that the main mechanism that ends business cycles is a geopolitical shock that pushes oil higher, which then worsens inflation at the same time unemployment begins to rise, effectively forcing the Fed into a no-win situation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-27 12:31

Gold: Dubious Speculation

historical analogies

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues gold is extended but not necessarily finished, using monthly chart indecision and historical analogs to say a 2026 correction is likely without implying a secular top. He frames gold and silver as portfolio hedges that may outperform stocks through a future U.S. recession, with gold likely leading silver over the next 12–18 months.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-26 08:47

Bitcoin: Midterm Year Returns

midterm-year returnsFebruary low / March top pattern

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is following a recurring midterm-year seasonal pattern: a low in late February followed by a rally into early March, but not usually a durable bull-market breakout. He cautions that a near-term bounce could still fit a broader setup that later fades into April/May.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-24 22:28

Business Cycles Ends With Recessions

business cyclerecessionlate-cycle macro

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that the economy and markets are in a late-business-cycle phase, with recessions being the mechanism that ultimately resets stretched valuation/liquidity conditions. He uses a composite chart of the S&P 500 normalized by unemployment, rates, inflation, and M2 to argue that excess is fading and that markets—starting with altcoins and Bitcoin—are already pricing in weakness before an obvious recession headline arrives.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-23 12:04

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Bitcoinmidterm-year seasonalitybear market

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s recent February weakness fits a recurring midterm-year seasonal pattern and that a countertrend bounce into early March would not likely mark the bear market low.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-22 08:14

Visualizing the Business Cycle

business cyclerecession riskS&P 500

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that business cycles can be visualized with a composite market/economy metric and says current conditions look late-cycle but not yet decisive. His base case is that investors should prepare for a possible hard landing over the next 1-3 years, while acknowledging a soft landing is still possible.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-20 08:51

Why Alt Season Never Happened

alt seasonliquidity risk model

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that alt season never arrived because this cycle was dominated by tight liquidity and Bitcoin leadership, not the loose-monetary backdrop that usually enables a broad altcoin rotation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-19 15:39

Market Discussion with Benjamin Cowen, Gareth Soloway, Scott Melker, and Mike McGlone

Bitcoin seasonalitycrypto bear marketaltcoins vs Bitcoin

Preview:Four market commentators debate Bitcoin, crypto sentiment, gold, stocks, rates, and AI. The panel is split: Benjamin Cowen leans toward a near-term Bitcoin bounce within a broader midyear downtrend, while Mike McGlone argues risk assets are broadly rolling over and favors bonds/TLT; Scott Melker emphasizes extreme crypto pessimism and the idea that Trump-era memecoin dynamics capped altcoins.

Verified Investing

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-19 15:38

Market Mavericks with Gareth Soloway, Scott Melker, Mike McGlone, and Ben Cowen

Bitcoincrypto sentimentaltcoins

Preview:A multi-guest market roundtable argues that Bitcoin is near-term oversold but likely still in a broader drawdown, while the stock market, gold, crude, and bonds are all being discussed through a shifting risk/liquidity lens. The panel is split between tactical bounce calls and larger caution about rolling risk downward, with TLT/bonds emerging as one participant’s preferred next trade.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-19 10:12

NFA Live: The Bitcoin Bear Market Blues

AI adoption vs crypto adoptionproduct-market fitliquidity and market stress

Preview:Three hosts discuss why crypto has lagged AI, where crypto stress would show up first if liquidity stays tight, and how AI may reshape jobs and society over the next five years. The tone is bearish on altcoins and treasury companies, mixed on Bitcoin, and cautious about the broader social consequences of AI.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-18 14:54

Bitcoin: The Bear Market Blues

2019 comparisonmidterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is behaving like a classic bear market after an apathy-driven top, with downside likely to continue into the spring before a possible better setup later in the year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-17 11:01

Live Market Discussion: Stocks, Metals, Bitcoin - Rolling Down The Risk Curve

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that the market is still in a midterm-year bear phase, with Bitcoin behaving normally for that setup, ETH underperforming, gold stronger than silver, and risk rotating down the curve as liquidity stays tight.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-17 01:07

Gold: Dubious Speculation

goldS&P 500 vs gold

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that gold remains in a strong long-term bull market, but likely faces a consolidation/correction phase before any further highs. He contrasts gold favorably versus stocks, saying the S&P 500 and QQQ are showing distribution-like behavior and that the breakdown of stocks relative to gold historically has not been good for equities.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-16 00:29

Bitcoin Bear Market Resistance Band

bear market resistance bandmidterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin remains in a bear market, with the recent breakdown turning the prior bull-market support band into a bear-market resistance band. He expects volatility, possible countertrend rallies, and a likely later-year low rather than an immediate reclaim of the band.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-15 00:42

Bitcoin Dominance

bitcoin dominancestablecoin dominancealtcoin rotation

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin dominance’s apparent weakness is mostly a stablecoin effect, not broad altcoin strength, and expects the broader dominance measure to eventually recover, though timing may be delayed.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-13 16:08

The Dow Jones Hits 50,000 - Time for a Correction?

midterm-year seasonalitymarket corrections

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s recent push to 50,000 may be a topping process, not the start of a straight-line move to 100,000. He leans on midterm-year seasonality and prior cycle analogs to suggest a meaningful correction is more likely before much further upside.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-13 11:34

Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, Chess

bitcoin bear marketmidterm-year seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen framed Bitcoin as still in a midterm-year bear market, gold as comparatively resilient, and stocks as due for at least a near-term correction, while repeatedly comparing the setup to prior cycle analogs. The stream was heavily interwoven with live chess commentary, subscription prompts, and answers to viewer questions about Bitcoin/gold ratios, Ethereum’s regression band, and macro timing.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-11 23:10

How low will Bitcoin go?

bear market levelsrealized price

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a cyclical bear market that could still have another leg down, with historical on-chain levels suggesting risk below realized price and balance price before a durable bull market resumes. He frames gold as relatively stronger right now and says Bitcoin may need more time, and possibly a deeper drawdown into the midterm-year seasonal pattern, before a real bottom forms.

Crypto Banter

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-11 11:13

Expect The Bitcoin Bottom By….. (With Ben Cowen)

October 2026 bottom

Preview:Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a bear market and that the cycle’s four-year structure still dominates, with a likely bottom in October 2026 and a secondary possibility of May. He sees downside toward roughly 40k–55k, expects a counter-trend rally first, and prefers rotating into metals, energy, and certain industrial/material names rather than forcing crypto exposure now.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-10 16:44

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

post-halving topsbear market

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is behaving like a classic post-halving cycle top, with weak social interest and a bearish setup that could persist through the first half of 2026. He frames the current drawdown as apathy-driven rather than needing a specific catalyst, and expects any durable recovery to take much longer, potentially into 2027.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-09 00:54

Welcome Back Home, Ethereum!

regression bandfair value

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Ethereum has returned to its long-run regression/fair-value area (“home”) and is likely to remain there for much of 2026 before any durable breakout. He expects ETH to underperform or grind in a bearish/mid-cycle-style environment first, with a possible ETH/BTC double bottom later in 2026, and only then a more constructive setup for 2027–2028.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-07 10:01

Bitcoin: We are Living in a Simulation

bear market structure

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is likely still in a bear market despite the recent bounce off 60K. He frames the current drawdown and fear/greed reading as highly similar to prior cycle capitulation points, especially 2018 and 2014, but says the path has differed in pace and depth, so he is not calling for an immediate deep crash or a huge rally.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-06 11:37

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

historical cycle analogscountertrend rallies

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is probably still in a bear market, but after a ~50% drawdown it becomes less useful to be deterministically bearish. He expects a relief rally is possible, likely a lower high around March, then more choppy downside or range-bound action before a bigger reset later in the year.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-05 23:51

Gold: Dubious Speculation

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that gold is still in a stronger position than silver after silver's euphoric blowoff, and that silver is more likely to enter a long consolidation while gold may still make a new high later this year. He frames the move in historical terms, repeatedly comparing the current setup to 1973, 1975/1978, 2008, and prior gold-silver ratio inflections.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-05 16:05

Bitcoin Down 50% From The Highs

four-year cycle200-week moving average

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a clear bear market after falling to about $63K, marking a 50% drawdown from highs. He frames the move as consistent with prior four-year-cycle bear markets, expects more downside or choppy rallies before a durable low, and thinks the most likely bottom window is October, with May as the main alternative.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-05 00:26

Bitcoin Crash Continues

50-week moving average200-week moving average

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin remains in a bear market and that the current crash is unfolding in line with prior post-halving cycles. His core case is that Bitcoin broke below the 50-week moving average, is heading toward the 200-week moving average, and is tracking the drawdown/mean-reversion pattern seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022 rather than a supercycle.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-04 11:16

Live Market Talk: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Stocks!

altcoin underperformance

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the market is still in a broad crypto bear phase, with Bitcoin likely heading toward its 200-week moving average after breaking below key trend/moving-average levels. He is also broadly bullish on gold and energy over the medium term, but thinks silver may be tired for now and altcoins remain poor long-term relative performers versus Bitcoin and metals.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-04 00:09

Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

200-week moving averagemidterm-year cycle

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a bear market and likely headed toward the 200-week moving average, with possible countertrend rallies along the way. He frames the current debate as tactical rather than structural: whether to trade a bounce now or wait for better setups later.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-03 12:41

Stocks to Drop 10% Soon?

four-year cycle

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues the stock market is likely near a meaningful correction, with a base expectation of roughly a 10%+ drop in the near future. He anchors that view to breakdowns in the S&P 500 versus gold, a historical four-year cycle in stocks, weakness in large-cap leaders, and spillover risk from metals and crypto selling.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-02 23:22

Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 67)

fair value regression

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain in a long valuation cycle driven by mathematics, regression, and Bitcoin dominance rather than broad altcoin participation. His view is that the asset class is still below fair value, may bleed lower for a while before recovering, and can eventually reach a much larger market cap over the next few cycles.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-01 23:21

Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

200-week moving average

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a bear market and near a key downside target: the 200-week moving average. He thinks any bounce from current levels is likely temporary, altcoins remain structurally weak versus Bitcoin, and the right response is survival, patience, and avoiding panic selling or altcoin chasing.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-02-01 00:04

Bitcoin: Damage Report

cycle topsmoving averages

Preview:Benjamin Cowan argues Bitcoin is in a bear market damage phase: the recent drop looks consistent with past cycle breakdowns, and he expects more downside, likely with only tactical countertrend rallies rather than a durable reversal. He frames the move as part of a broader macro regime where weak labor data, a possible dollar bounce, and risk-off flows matter more than oversold indicators or hopes of an immediate crypto rotation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-30 19:04

Silver Drops 38%

metal rotation

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that silver’s nearly 40% selloff likely marks a local top, at least tactically, and that portfolios should currently favor gold over silver. His core evidence is the gold/silver ratio and prior historical analogs in 1974, 1980, 2008, and 2011, where silver often topped first, dropped sharply, and gold held up better or later made new highs.

The Wolf Of All Streets

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-29 16:03

Bitcoin DUMPS As Market Volatility Sky Rockets! W/ Ben Cowen

four-year cycleliquidity and central banks

Preview:A multi-way market discussion centered on Bitcoin’s weakness, the latest move in metals, and what liquidity, rates, and the dollar mean for risk assets. Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin is already in a bear market and that the current cycle looks more like a 2019-style top: apathy rather than euphoria, no real altcoin rotation, and a likely decline toward the 200-week moving average area before a reassessment. Scott Melker broadly agrees that the 4-year cycle may still rhyme but is less cleanly aligned, while Mike makes a more tactical macro case that bonds, the dollar, and commodities are setting up for bigger reversals and that many recent moves are being masked by extreme gold/silver strength.

Verified Investing

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-29 16:00

Market Mavericks with Gareth Soloway, Scott Melker, Mike McGlone, and Benjamin Cowen

Preview:A roundtable on Bitcoin, metals, the dollar, and rates framed the current market as a broad risk-asset unwind rather than a crypto-specific shock. Ben Cowen argued Bitcoin is already in a bear market and is likely following a 2019-style path: slower bleed, apathy rather than euphoric top, and a possible low around October 2026. Mike McGlone agreed on the direction of travel for Bitcoin and also turned bearish on crude oil, while emphasizing that silver-led commodity strength may be nearing exhaustion. Gareth Soloway and Scott Melker focused on the macro setup: weaker dollar, rising commodity inflation pressure, and the idea that Bitcoin, metals, and stocks are all acting like leading indicators for each other.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-29 14:06

Why is Bitcoin Dropping?

four-year cyclepost-halving seasonality

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has already entered a bear market and is likely to keep falling because the four-year cycle has ended, the post-halving/post-election Q4 top pattern repeated, and current price action resembles Bitcoin’s 2019 apathy-driven top more than an euphoric bull-market peak.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-29 10:18

NFA Live! Metal Mania, Bitcoin Lags

de-dollarization

Preview:This is a weekly multi-speaker market chat focused on the strong rally in metals and the relative weakness in Bitcoin. The speakers argue that gold, silver, copper, palladium, uranium, and related hard assets are being bid by geopolitics, de-dollarization, supply constraints, AI/electrification demand, and momentum, while crypto is lagging because the cycle has likely shifted away from altcoins and because Bitcoin now faces narrative, positioning, and sentiment headwinds.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-27 18:56

Two Important Charts For Gold!

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that gold’s breakout is not just about the USD price hitting new highs, but about gold outperforming major alternatives like the S&P 500 and increasingly fitting a broader macro rotation into hard assets. He treats two charts as the key signals: gold versus the S&P 500, and gold versus M2 money supply, both of which he says support a still-bullish long-term view toward roughly $6,000 and potentially higher later.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-26 15:29

Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band

bull market support bandcycle length

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has shifted from bull market to bear market conditions, with the former bull market support band now acting as resistance until proven otherwise. He expects a path of slightly lower highs and lower lows into mid-2026, with a likely eventual retest of the April 2025 low, while favoring harder assets like gold and silver over altcoins.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-25 21:52

Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

ETH/BTC

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Ethereum’s post-2025 rally likely topped and that ETH is now in a slow bearish drift rather than an immediate crash. His base case is a continued bleed toward fair value around $2,000 as Bitcoin remains in a bear market and monetary conditions stay too tight for a durable alt rotation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-24 22:12

Palladium Breaks $2,000!

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues palladium has already broken out above $2,000 and remains structurally bullish, though he warns it is a more volatile and less durable long-term hold than gold. He frames the move as part of a familiar post-double-top pattern: a short-term pullback, consolidation, then continuation higher, with a target zone he places roughly around $2,150 to $2,350 if the rally extends.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-23 11:01

Metal Mania

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that metals are in a late-stage mania, with silver already breaking $100 and gold pressing a key $5,000 psychological level. His core view is that metals likely top in Q1 or early Q2, then cool off into Q3, and that a metals peak would probably coincide with weakness across risk assets rather than a clean rotation into crypto or altcoins.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-22 14:40

Gold Breaks out against Stocks!

relative-strength breakoutcommodity leadership

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that gold has broken out not just in USD terms but, more importantly, relative to stocks. He frames this as part of a broader regime where lower-risk assets such as gold and commodities outperform crypto and other risk assets, and he expects gold to keep leading after any pullback.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-21 15:49

Gold and the Rotation Trap

rotation trap

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that gold’s breakout above 4800 is signaling a broader rotation-trap across markets, not an immediate trade back into risk assets. His core message is that when gold eventually corrects, stocks and crypto may also be weak or bottoming at roughly the same time, so selling metals in anticipation of a clean rotation could be the wrong historical analogy.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-20 10:19

A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks

recession risk

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that the S&P 500 valued against gold is approaching a historically important breakdown level. He says a close below roughly 1.4 would materially raise recession odds, and he thinks the market may be underestimating that risk because the chart has preceded weak periods in the 1970s and 2008. He also argues that a metals peak does not automatically mean a rotation back into risk assets; if this ratio breaks down, stocks could simply weaken further while gold stays strong or corrects less.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-19 16:36

Bitcoin: Timing Cycle Bottoms

supply in profit and losscycle bottoms

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin cycle lows are best identified by watching the percentage of supply in profit versus loss converge, rather than trying to call tops or exact bottoms. He says the metric is currently still elevated but has already started falling, and if it converges later in 2026 the historical pattern would suggest a cycle low is near.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-18 23:36

Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band

bull market support band21-week EMA

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is likely in a topping phase rather than the start of a durable new advance. He thinks the recent rally toward the 21-week EMA / bull market support band is more likely a counter-trend bounce than the beginning of a move to new highs, and he expects a macro lower high followed by a revisit of lower support over the coming months.

The Wolf Of All Streets

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-18 09:01

"Bitcoin Is In A Bear Market & This Is Why It Feels Different" | Ben Cowen

2019 bear market analogyretail apathy vs euphoria

Preview:Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin has already topped in Q4 2025, but this cycle feels different because it peaked on apathy rather than euphoric retail blowoff. His base case is a slower, more muted bear market similar to 2019, with possible countertrend rallies, while liquidity conditions and Fed policy remain the main macro gatekeepers.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-18 00:45

Gold: Dubious Speculation

monthly RSI1970s analogy

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that gold’s long-term bull market remains intact despite being extremely overbought in the short run. His base case is a possible blowoff top in the first half of 2026 followed by a meaningful drawdown, but he still thinks gold can trend toward $5,000 and potentially $6,000 before the decade ends.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-15 23:55

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

2019 analogmoving averages

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s current rebound is most likely a counter-trend rally inside a larger post-top / digestion phase rather than the start of a fresh leg to new highs. He leans heavily on analogs to 2019 and prior cycle tops, along with moving-average behavior, weak retail participation, and stablecoin dominance, to say the market remains vulnerable to rejection and further downside before any durable recovery.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-14 09:48

Silver Mania!

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues silver is in a full-blown mania phase and likely still has upside before a blowoff top in the first half of 2026, after which he expects a sizable correction or consolidation. He suggests the best tactical response is not to chase silver with new money or sell winners into random risk assets, but for holders to consider scaling out gradually or rotating some exposure from silver into gold, which he believes should hold up better in the next drawdown.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-13 15:02

Crypto Ghost Town

retail crypto interest

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that crypto is a “ghost town” because retail participation has structurally disappeared, altcoins have performed poorly for years, and the cycle has been dominated by Bitcoin, institutions, and speculative memecoins rather than broad user adoption. He is skeptical that a durable altcoin recovery can happen soon without a real rebound in social interest, better fundamentals, and more useful products.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-12 12:21

A Line Has Been Crossed

Federal Reserve independenceJerome Powell

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that the DOJ’s criminal investigation into Jerome Powell marks a new and dangerous escalation in pressure on Federal Reserve independence. He says the immediate market consequence is higher uncertainty around rates, policy, and risk assets, even if the actual charges have not happened yet.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-12 00:01

Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

late-cycle market structure2019 vs 2022 comparison

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still below its bull market support band and that, in a mid-cycle year, that band may function more like resistance than support. He thinks the current setup is more similar to 2019 than 2022: a late-cycle, apathy-driven top with weak retail participation and little altcoin rotation, which could lead to a rejection and eventually a lower low, but likely with a smaller drawdown than 2022 unless a macro shock arrives.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-10 20:54

Is Uranium a good Long-Term Investment?

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues uranium is a good long-term investment, but he explicitly frames the view as biased because he owns uranium-related stocks and has a nuclear engineering background. His core case is that uranium fits a growing energy-demand story, the nuclear industry is getting policy support, supply investment has lagged after years of low prices, and the technical structure remains constructive with higher highs/lower highs resolving toward prior all-time highs.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-08 16:50

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

bear market analogies2019 comparison

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is in a broader bear-market-style unwind rather than a clean continuation higher, and he thinks the most likely path is a macro lower high first, then a lower low later in 2026. He leans heavily on the 2019 comparison, apathy in social interest, stablecoin dominance, and labor-market data as near-term context, while stressing that exact short-term timing is very hard to predict.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-08 10:32

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

crypto adoptionaltcoins

Preview:A conversational NFA Live episode focused on why crypto feels weak despite improving fundamentals: adoption is growing, regulation is advancing, institutions are entering, but price is still lagging. The speakers frame this as a classic bear-market disconnect, debate what lessons this cycle taught, compare altcoins to metals and AI, and emphasize that long-term success now depends more on building useful products and taking profits than on chasing speculative narratives.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-07 15:41

Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern

stablecoin dominancebear market cycle

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is following a familiar bear-market-style setup, with stablecoin dominance now breaking out in a way that historically preceded sustained moves higher in dominance and lower in risk assets. He thinks Bitcoin may get a countertrend rally, but he expects those rallies to fail into a macro lower high before a deeper move down into the summer, with better accumulation opportunities later in 2026.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-06 09:17

Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

ETH/BTC valuationquantitative tightening

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Ethereum’s current move is more likely a 2019-style post-top drift than a euphoric continuation, with the ETH/BTC pair and the end of quantitative tightening as the key lenses. He says the next month or two are the key proof window; if ETH can’t reclaim strength against Bitcoin and the bull market support band, he expects a deeper slide into the regression band later in 2026.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-04 22:02

Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

bull market support band50-week moving average

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin’s current bounce is still most consistent with a mid-cycle / bear-market-style countertrend rally rather than a confirmed resumption of the bull market. He thinks the key test is whether BTC can reclaim and hold the 50-week moving average; without multiple weekly closes above it, he expects a lower high followed by a deeper drawdown, with the 200-week moving average likely to be tested later in 2026.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-02 22:41

Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 66)

altseasonfair value regression

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin remains the dominant driver of the crypto cycle and that altseason is not guaranteed. He says the total crypto market is still undervalued versus his fair-value regression framework, but believes the class may revisit deeper undervaluation in 2026 before ultimately heading toward a much larger long-run valuation.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-01 20:32

Happy New Year Bitcoin!

four-year cyclepost-halving year

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin likely topped in the post-halving year as expected, but the cycle was weaker than prior ones and appears to have peaked on apathy rather than euphoria. He emphasizes that Bitcoin outperformed altcoins over the last several years, but says the current setup still looks like a bear market with more downside risk, interrupted by rallies that may be sold until monetary policy changes.

David Lin

Benjamin Cowen

2026-01-01 12:00

Analyst Called Bitcoin Top; Reveals 2026 Forecast | Ben Cowen

2019 bear market analogFed policy and liquidity

Preview:Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin likely topped in October 2025 on apathy rather than euphoria and is now in a slower 2019-style bear market, with downside potentially extending into mid/late 2026. He thinks altcoins won’t see a broad alt season, dominance likely rises again, and metals remain structurally constructive even if they consolidate after a sharp run.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2025-12-31 15:24

Ethereum: Logarithmic Regression

cycle fair value

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues Ethereum is likely to keep drifting back toward its logarithmic regression band through 2026, with any near-term rally seen as potentially temporary unless it is followed by a more durable cycle reset. He frames the model as a long-term fair-value guide, says ETH has behaved similarly to prior cycles, and thinks better entries may come during the 2026 consolidation phase rather than in an immediate breakout.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2025-12-30 17:39

Reflections from 2025: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stocks, and Metals

altseason absence

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues 2025 validated his broader 4-year-cycle framework, but the cycle’s peak and subsequent drawdown looked more like 2019’s slow bleed than the sharper bear markets of 2018 or 2022. He says there was no guaranteed altseason, retail never really returned, Bitcoin dominated the cycle, and most alts underperformed badly versus Bitcoin, gold, silver, and other real assets.

Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen

2025-11-30 22:12

Bitcoin and the End of Quantitative Tightening

quantitative tightening

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s weakness around the end of quantitative tightening is more likely to resemble the 2019 cycle than a bullish liquidity pivot. His core point is that the announcement that QT is ending is not the same thing as the Fed’s balance sheet actually rising, and he thinks that lag matters enough that Bitcoin can keep bleeding for weeks or months even as the QT headline turns positive.

The Wolf Of All Streets

Benjamin Cowen

2025-10-19 07:59

What Bitcoin ACTUALLY Needs To Do For Alt-Season To Begin | Benjamin Cowen

Preview:Benjamin Cowen argues this cycle most closely resembles 2017, not 2021 — meaning altcoins bleed against Bitcoin until a parabolic BTC rally forces capitulation, after which a brief (1-2 month) alt season may occur. He remains cautiously bullish into year-end, pinning the bull case on Bitcoin making new all-time highs by mid-December, with the 50-week MA (~$102K) as the invalidation line. He sees Ethereum as having already bottomed vs. Bitcoin in April, but the broader altcoin market still needs more pain. If Bitcoin fails to rally by year-end, he expects a 2026 bear market — though the shallowest yet (~70% drawdown).

David Lin

Benjamin Cowen

2025-09-24 12:26

Bitcoin's Next Cycle Top Revealed; When Does 'Altcoin Season' Start? | Ben Cowen

altcoin season

Preview:Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin is tracking its usual post-halving/post-election cycle: likely a Q4 cycle top, then a 2026 bear market. He thinks the near-term setup favors Bitcoin dominance rising first, with altcoin season still premature, while Ethereum likely has one more rally to new highs before the cycle ends.

David Lin

Benjamin Cowen

2025-07-07 13:27

Bitcoin Q3 Warning: Why August, September Are 'Worst Months' | Ben Cowen

Preview:Ben Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, sits down with David Lin and co-host Bonnie Chen at the Bitcoin Las Vegas Conference. Cowen lays out his thesis that Bitcoin dominance continues its multi-year uptrend, arguing altcoins remain overvalued against BTC and need to bleed further toward the historical 25% floor before any altseason is possible. He sees Q3 as seasonally weak for Bitcoin (especially August/September), believes Ethereum has finally "gone home" to its regression band, and contends Bitcoin leads M2 money supply rather than lagging it — a view he acknowledges is contentious. His core message: most crypto portfolios should be overwhelmingly Bitcoin.